StoneX logo
Contact us

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 28

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Add us as preferred source on Google

May 28 - Both the S&P and the Nasdaq stock indices hit record highs this morning following a news report that a memorandum of understanding had been reached between Iranian and U.S. negotiators, although approval has not yet been given by the leadership of both countries. Stocks have since pared their gains. Crude oil prices fell several dollars per barrel on the headline, and they have also pared their losses in the wake of that announcement. The VIX is trading near 16 at this hour, after falling to its lowest level since early February, while the dollar index trades near 99.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.46%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near  4.03%. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $90 per barrel at midday, while Brent trades near $94 per barrel. Corn and soybean prices continue to post modest gains as they follow crude oil's lead again today, while wheat prices post modest losses.

The headlines again read that Iran and the United States have reached an outline agreement to extend the current ceasefire another 60 days while they continue to negotiate those issues for which they are far apart - namely Iran's nuclear enrichment program. The agreement still must be approved by the leaders of both countries. Those headlines suggest that the agreement opens up the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic for free movement through the period. Only time will tell if it is real this time.

A major U.S. farm advisory service reportedly advised its members to lift their corn hedges, and then repeated rumors inside of China that it may be lifting import tariffs on US corn. This possibility is nothing new. I've been speculating for several months that we could see China buy corn this year. Let's make one thing clear - China doesn't need to buy U.S. corn, but it does have room for corn in its reserve. Any purchases it makes will be more about politics than about economics. But it did commit to buying $17 billion in Ag products per year over the next several years, above and beyond the soybean purchases it committed to in October, and corn is an attractive option. Yes, the wheat harvest has begun in China, with more wheat than normal expected to grade feed quality in the North China Plain due to recent persistent rains, but this does not look to be a repeat of 2023. U.S. corn is relatively competitive into China currently, as opposed to soybeans which are much more expensive than South American alternatives. And China's reserve supplies have declined enough in recent years to provide some room. China may also be hedging its bets that we'll see higher prices a year from now if fertilizer shortages due to the war in Iran result in lower global production. Again, we have no confirmation that it has purchased any corn, or even that it will, but I continue to see that as a likely option.

New sales of single-family homes dropped to an annual rate of 622K in April, down from 663K in March, and down from 701K the previous year. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes on the market at the end of April stood at 489K units, up modestly from 481K in March, but down from 500K the previous year. This represents an estimated 9.4 month inventory of homes at the current sales rate, up from 8.7 months in March and up from 8.6 months a year ago. The median sale price rose to $422,500 in April, up 9.3% on the month, and up 2.2% from the previous year. The average sales price in April was $508,800, up from $505,200 in March, but down from $514,300 a year earlier.

 

image-20260528105353-1
  • Grains & Oilseeds

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 28

September 28 – Stock futures are pointing to a lower open to start the week, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both remaining within shouting distance of their respective all-time highs, while the Dow Jones continues to be the laggard of the major indexes, holding in a clear downtrend after touching a three-plus month low last week. The VIX is elevated to start the week but remains on the low-end of 2026 trade, hovering just above 16 at the time of writing. The dollar is in the green again after big weekly gains but a lower close on Friday, trading at 101.16 to start the day. Treasury yields are looking to start the week in focus as they show signs of renewed upward momentum, as 2-year yields rise to 4.91%, 10-year yields rise to 5.215%, and 30-year yields pushing near 5.53%. Crude oil is higher but the grains and oilseeds are widely lower to start the week as speculative length expresses its disappointment regarding more concrete progress between the U.S. and China.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 25

September 25 – The Dow Jones continues to favor the high side of level-par through the morning hours but it is still set for a fourth straight losing week; the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are trading steady-to-lower at the time of this writing. Treasuries are slightly higher again today after hitting their highest levels in around two decades yesterday. WTI crude oil is trading lower but not materially so, below the $100 per barrel mark but almost $2/bbl off session lows as wars rage on on multiple fronts.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 25

September 25 – The grains and oilseeds are taking the lack of breakthroughs from yesterday’s U.S. / China negotiations as bearish, and I’m not just talking about pandas. Although the overall tone of the summit was one of reconciliation and diplomacy, a welcomed development amid the environment of ongoing geopolitical tensions, there have been no concrete announcements of fresh Chinese purchase agreements for U.S. agricultural commodities as of the time of writing. It’s encouraging to see a two-month extension to the existing trade truce, now extended to January 10, as well as the plans for additional meetings between the two sides during this span, but some of the existing speculative length coming into the meeting is clearly reacting with disappointment to the duration of the extension and lack of a broader agreement. The fact that we’re continuing to see China purchase U.S. soybeans, as evidenced by yesterday’s fresh flash sale announcement, is an encouraging sign, but we still have not seen any evidence of actual progress on the alleged $17B in non-soy ag purchases—nor have we seen confirmation from China on this agreement.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products
Read more
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.