Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 6

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Wed, 06 May 2026, 17:11

May 6 – A sense of euphoria persists on Wall Street at midday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both trading at new all-time highs and the Dow Jones up over 1% on the day as well. The VIX has bounced back from its three-month low this morning but remains in the red near 17.2 at the time of writing. This is similar to the price action we’ve seen in crude oil today as well, pushing sharply lower in reaction to the headlines of a potential end of the conflict being in sight, but bouncing from the lows as more cautionary rhetoric arises from the Iranian side. Nearby WTI fell below $90 for the first time in two weeks earlier this morning, but has since bounced back to trade near $95.90 at the time of writing, still down ~6.6% on the day; Brent futures also pushed to a two-week low earlier in the session but have since bounced back to trade near $101.90, still down ~7.2% on the day. Similarly, the U.S. dollar fell to a three-month low near 97.6 this morning but has since bounced back to trade above 98 at midday. A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry did confirm that Iran would be reviewing the one-page memorandum and conveying its response via Pakistani mediators, which means we should continue to see markets reacting to fresh headlines in the near-term.

The weakness in crude oil has triggered a broader selloff in the commodity sector, with the grains and oilseeds among today’s main casualties. It’s no coincidence to see commodities, namely the grains and oilseeds, selling off so aggressively while stocks rally this hard, as managed money looks to return to the risk assets amid the perceived improvement in peace prospects and ongoing resilience of U.S. economic data. Given the huge net managed money length built up in the grains and oilseeds recently despite largely heavy fundamentals, today’s price action is a prime example of the downside price risk these positions present if the right headline arrives. It’s also a good reminder to producers of these commodities of the need to reward the rally in this type of environment.

The Oklahoma Wheat Commission yesterday estimated the size of the state’s winter wheat crop at 47.8 million bushels following their annual tour, with state average yield pegged at 23.11 bushels per acre. Their crop is certainly in rough shape amid ongoing dryness, with their current 16% good/excellent the lowest at this time in three years, but this appears to be a bit too pessimistic. This tour has produced lower production estimates than USDA’s final in each of the last six years, by an average of 10.32 million bushels over that span. Looking back at Oklahoma’s two most recent down years, 2022 & 2023, the tour’s estimates came in 11.55 and 14.29 million bushels below USDA’s final numbers, respectively, something worth keeping in mind when reading these numbers. While portions of the Plains saw some welcomed precipitation yesterday with more moving through today, it will also be important to keep an eye on overnight lows expected to push below freezing yet again tonight, adding additional stress. This is also likely part of why KC wheat futures have seen the best performance of the grains and oilseeds today, now trading only narrowly in the red.

Average 30-year mortgage rates rose to a four-week high at 6.45% in the week ending May 1, up from 6.37% in the week prior and marking a more notable uptick from the recent low of 6.09% made back in late February. In turn, overall mortgage applications fell 4.4% week-over-week, their sharpest weekly decline since late March. Of that total, applications for new purchases fell by 3.7% week-over-week while refinancing applications fell by 5.0%. The U.S. housing market has been sluggish, though shown signs of resilience in recent data releases; the market will get another look at the health of the sector with April existing home sales due out on Monday.

U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 2.31 million barrels in the week ending May 1, though this was less of a drop than analyst estimates and up notably from the 6.23-million-barrel draw in the week prior. This puts total U.S. crude oil stocks, excluding the SPR, at 457.18 million barrels, a six-week low but still 4.3% above the same week last year. Distillate stocks saw a 1.29-million-barrel draw, though that was also less than the expected 2.35-million-barrel draw and an improvement from 4.49 million in the week prior. Still, it’s worth pointing out that this is a 21-year low for weekly distillate stocks in the U.S., dating back to late April 2005, as shown in the accompanying graphic. Meanwhile, weekly U.S. On-Highway Retail Diesel Prices rose by $0.29/gallon week-over-week to now sit at $5.64, just a tick below the nearly four-year high of $5.643 made four weeks ago. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 2.50 million barrels week-over-week, a bit sharper than the average 2.11-million-barrel estimate but also a notable rebound from 6.075 million in the week prior. This brings total U.S. gasoline stocks to 219.80 million barrels, following the typical seasonal decline seen in this time of year but pushing below the previous three-year range and slipping to the tightest overall gasoline stocks seen since late November. Weekly average U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices rose to $4.581/gallon this week, another fresh high since mid-July 2022.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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