Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 17

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 17 Nov 2025, 17:46

November 17 – Stocks have traded both sides of unchanged through the first half of the day, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 in the green but Dow Jones in the red at the time of writing. The VIX has cooled back to hang around the 20.7 mark at mid-day after rising near 21.7 this morning and touching a fresh four-week high on Friday just above 23. The dollar is up slightly, hovering near 99.46 at the time of writing. Treasuries are mixed on the day, with 10-year yields in the red trading near 4.135% while 2-year yields are narrowly in the green near 3.62%. Crude oil has seen similar choppy, quiet trade to start the week, with nearby WTI touching both sides of the $60/barrel mark through the morning and sitting right near it at mid-day. Meanwhile, the ags are sharply higher across the board after Friday’s selloff, with the soy complex leading the way higher amid some potential beneficial money flow, rumors of Chinese purchases, and a record-high print on today’s NOPA Crush Report.

Following this morning’s better-than-expected manufacturing data from the New York Fed, the U.S. Census Bureau reported national construction spending showing a surprise 0.2% month-over-month increase versus market expectations of a 0.1% decline. Furthermore, July’s data was revised higher, now also showing a 0.2% month-over-month increase instead of the original 0.1% monthly decline. Given the unexpected strength in the July/August figures, U.S. construction spending has now seen three consecutive months of expansion for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2023, certainly a welcomed improvement, though obviously these figures are a bit dated, which will be a common theme as government data plays catch-up following the shutdown. Much of this unexpected strength was driven by a 0.8% monthly spike in residential construction spending, more than offsetting the 0.2% decline on the non-residential side. The weakness on the non-residential side was driven largely by a 0.9% monthly drop in manufacturing, 0.5% drop in transportation, and 0.2% declines in power and highways/streets; the education segment saw a 0.7% monthly rise. Looking specifically at public construction spending, August was effectively unchanged from July, though cumulative public totals for the first eight months of 2025 now sit at $1.438T, down 1.8% from the January – August period last year.

USDA inspected 80.9 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending November 13, blowing past the top-end trade estimate and bringing cumulative ‘25/’26 corn inspections to 623.5 mbu, up a whopping 73.0% versus this time last year and maintaining the hottest start to any marketing year on record. Meanwhile, soybean inspections came in at 43.2 mbu, in line with expectations but still roughly half of normal levels at this time (-48.2% vs. previous 5-year average) due to the ongoing absence of shipments to China—they again did not appear on this week’s report for any grain/oilseed. All wheat inspections fell to 9.1 mbu, below the low-end estimate and marking the smallest week of inspections seen in five-plus months, though the hot start to the marketing year helps cushion the blow today. A final interesting note, weekly milo (sorghum) inspections jumped to 3.3 mbu, effectively in line with average for this time of year but still marking the best week of the marketing year thus far. This is even more impressive given the lack of shipments to China, with Spain (2.1 mbu) instead taking the top spot, followed by Japan (786k bu), and Mexico (432k bu).

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported today that its members (who account for up to 99% of U.S. activity) crushed an all-time record 227.647 million bushels of soybeans in October, drastically above the average trade estimate of 209.5 mbu and well above even the top-end estimate of 223.5 mbu. This is up an impressive 15.1% month-on-month compared to September and up 13.9% year-on-year compared to last October. Meanwhile, soybean oil stocks rose to 1.305 billion pounds in October, up 5.0% month-on-month and coming in notably above the average trade estimate of a slighter rise to 1.257 billion, though at least remaining within the expected range, below the top-end of 1.325 billion.

It’s worth putting in context how impressive that yearly rise is, with cumulative ‘25/’26 soy crush of 425.5 million bushels through the first two months of the marketing year representing an increase of nearly 13% year-over-year with USDA looking for a full-year increase of only 4.5% from ‘24/’25 into ‘25/’26, according to Friday’s WASDE. It’s also worth highlighting the importance of domestic soybean crush moving forward, with the export picture continuing to look uncertain amid a lack of clarity regarding substantial Chinese purchases and the longer-term pressure of ongoing Brazilian expansion. In the last five years, U.S. soybean crush has grown by 19.3% (or ~414 mbu) while U.S. soybean exports have fallen by 27.8% (or ~631 mbu). As shown in the below chart, the share of total U.S. soybean demand going to exports has trended steadily lower in this span, falling to only 38.0% in USDA’s most recent balance sheet, while the share going to crush has trended steadily higher, nearing the 60% mark.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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