Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 5

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 05 Nov 2025, 17:44

Today's Perspective Video: China Cuts Tariffs on U.S. Commodities

November 5 - Trump Administration lawyers faced tough questions today from Supreme Court justices appointed by both conservative and liberal administrations, communicating that President Trump is not assured of a victory in the trial over the legality of his tariffs just because conservatives hold a majority of the court. You can reference my morning commentary for a more detailed breakdown on the chances for this landmark case. Meanwhile, stocks are higher today on positive economic data released this morning as they recover from yesterday's selloff. In fact, the VIX is trading back lower near 17 at midday, while the dollar index holds near 100.2 after setting a fresh five-month high this morning. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.16%, marking a four-week high, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.63% after this mornings solid data release. Crude oil prices are more than 1% lower after falling below chart support near $60 per barrel, while the grain and oilseed markets are higher. Both the live and feeder cattle futures locked the daily limit lower this morning on concerns the Trump Administration will be increasing beef supplies.

The Final PMI Composite Index for October came in at 54.6, down slightly from the mid-month flash estimate of 54.8, and below expectations of 54.8, but still up from 53.9 the previous month. A number above "50" indicates month-on-month growth. The Services Index came in at 54.8, down from the mid-month flash estimate of 55.2, which was also the average trade estimate, but up from 54.2 the previous month. The ISM Services Index rose to 52.4, up from trade estimates of 51.0, and above the 50.0 posted for September. Both of these reports suggest economic growth in October, which also fits with this morning's ADP jobs report showing modest private sector job growth during the month.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 5.2 million to 421.2 million barrels in the week ending October 31, putting them roughly 4% below the five-year average for the end of October. Gasoline stocks dropped by 4.7 million barrels, leaving them 5% below levels typically seen in late October. Distillate stocks slipped by 0.6 million barrels last week, putting them about 9% below the five-year average for the week. Ethanol stocks rose to 22.7 million barrels in the week ending October 31, up from 22.4 million barrels the previous week, and up from 22.0 million barrels in the same week last year. Ethanol production hit a record 1,123K barrels per day last week, up from 1,091K the previous week, and up from 1,105K bpd in the same week last year. The production of ethanol utilized an estimated 106.4 million bushels of corn last week, up from 103.4 million the previous week, but down from 108.8 million bushels in the same week last year, showing the improved efficiencies seen over the past year. Estimated marketing year to date corn use for ethanol totals 885 million bushels, down 38 million bushels from the previous year's pace, largely due to those improved efficiencies.

Soybeans led the grain sector higher this morning on China trade enthusiasm. China reportedly purchased modest amounts of both soybeans and soft red winter wheat over the past week, but traders were concerned about China's overall silence about the trade agreement that the White House has so highly touted. Those concerns eased somewhat when China reduced its retaliatory tariffs today, cutting them in half from 20% down to 10%. The table below summarizes the changes in tariffs that China charges on U.S. commodities coming into its ports. U.S. soybeans arriving at Chinese ports from the U.S. Gulf were priced at $13.71 per bushel without these retaliatory tariffs, while Brazilian soybeans arriving at the same ports were at $13.57 per bushel. Soybeans originating from the U.S. Pacific Northwest were priced at $13.54 per bushel landed at the port in China. So, in essence U.S. soybeans were priced similar to slightly higher to old-crop Brazilian supplies. But, adding the extra 10% retaliatory tariff (formerly 20%) still leaves U.S. soybeans well over a dollar more expensive than Brazilian old-crop supplies. That means that China either needs to waive the remaining 10% retaliatory tariff to even have a chance at selling our soybeans to private crushers in China, or China's state grain buyer Sinograin will need to do the heavy lifting to meet China's commitments of purchasing 12 million metric tons in the 2025 calendar year. That would be an optimistic outlook for Sinograin to buy that quantity in such a short time.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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