Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst
October 9 – Stocks are looking to end the week on a positive note, with the major indexes all in the green at midday, led by the Dow Jones. The VIX has cooled to a two-week low below 14.9 at the time of writing. The dollar remains higher, hovering around 102.3 at midday, still near its 18-month high. Treasury yields are continuing their push higher, with 2-year yields at 4.802%, 10-year yields at 5.253%, and 30-year yields at 5.61%. Crude oil is having a rather quiet session, with nearby WTI clinging to small gains as it sits 0.25% higher to trade near $91.40, and nearby Brent effectively unchanged at writing near $104.10. The ags are sharply lower following the USDA’s October WASDE, with results shown below.
U.S. consumer sentiment took an unexpectedly sharp downturn in October according to this morning’s preliminary Survey of Consumers release from the University of Michigan. The headline Index of Consumer Sentiment came in at 46.3, down from 48.1 in September and well below the average analyst estimate of 47.8, marking the third consecutive monthly decline to now sit at its lowest reading since the all-time low of 44.8 seen back in May. The weakness was driven by a major deterioration in current economic conditions, tanking to a new all-time low of 44.7 in October, sharply below the 50.9 seen in September and analyst expectations of a slight improvement to 51.0. Conversely, consumer expectations improved by one point to sit at 47.3 in October, offsetting some of the drag from current conditions. Some of the biggest declines in consumer sentiment were seen among independent voters, lower-income consumers, and those with smaller stock portfolios. Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu noted in today’s release that “frustration over the cost of living continues to mount, as consumers across the political spectrum believe that the trajectory of the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year.”
Consumer inflation expectations ticked higher, with year-ahead now seen at 4.7% versus 4.6% in the month prior, now back to the highest level seen since May. Five-year inflation expectations moved higher as well, now sitting at 3.5% versus the 3.4% seen in September, also marking the highest level seen since May. Rising fuel prices play an outsized role in the overall negativity, but the ultimate question for the market is how this pessimism translates to consumer spending. When asked about what purchases consumers plan on cutting back the most, the most common answers included groceries (trading down from brand name to generics, not total consumption), eating out, vacations, vehicles, and household items including durables. Thus far, U.S. consumer spending on aggregate has remained unexpectedly resilient despite the ongoing pessimism, though it’s worth noting that is propped up more heavily by higher-income consumers. Increasing borrowing costs may add to this negativity, but it will be important to see how this actually translates in terms of big-ticket purchases. This also continues to bring more focus to next week’s inflation data, particularly at the consumer level with CPI due out next Wednesday (10/15).
USDA brought another ugly surprise to the corn market, raising U.S. corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre, sharply above the average analyst estimate of a decline to 177.7, sending corn futures crashing lower into midday. This raises 2026/27 U.S. corn production to 16.034 billion bushels, again sharply above the average trade estimate of 15.721 billion, with ending stocks of 1.849 billion. USDA also raised their 2026/27 corn demand estimates across the board in turn to offset the blow somewhat. World corn stocks also came in above even the top-end estimate. U.S. soybean yield was raised to 53.1 bushels per acre, also above the average estimate of holding steady at 52.8, but not by as much. A summary of the relevant snapshot figures are provided below.
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
El Niño crop fears tend to peak long before harvest data arrives, and markets often price the worst case first. Australia's wheat crop and Brazil's record estimates show how that fear can give way to facts.
October 9 – Stocks are looking to end the week on a positive note, with the major indexes all in the green at midday, led by the Dow Jones. The VIX has cooled to a two-week low below 14.9 at the time of writing. The dollar remains higher, hovering around 102.3 at midday, still near its 18-month high. Treasury yields are continuing their push higher, with 2-year yields at 4.802%, 10-year yields at 5.253%, and 30-year yields at 5.61%. Crude oil is having a rather quiet session, with nearby WTI clinging to small gains as it sits 0.25% higher to trade near $91.40, and nearby Brent effectively unchanged at writing near $104.10. The ags are sharply lower following the USDA’s October WASDE, with results shown below.
October 9 – Stock futures are pointing to an attempted end of week rebound after losing ground in recent days, while the VIX has cooled back below the 15.2 level to start the day. The dollar is up slightly after a back-and-forth session yesterday, continuing to linger near 18-month highs. Treasury yields are resuming their move higher, with 2-year yields trading at 4.804%, 10-year yields at 5.257%, and 30-year yields at 5.622% at the time of writing. Crude oil has traded both sides of unchanged today, reacting to headlines in both directions, but nearby WTI is hanging slightly in the red, down 0.4% to trade near $90.80 at the time of writing, while nearby Brent is up 0.9% to trade near $103.20. The ags are largely mixed to start the session, with all eyes on today’s October WASDE report due out at 11:00 AM Central Time as traders wait to see what shifts USDA will make after incorporating the September quarterly stocks figures, with the biggest questions on corn.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
