Canada Know-Risk Weekly Agricultural Market Update 9-11-26
Canada Know-Risk Weekly Agricultural Market Update 9-11-26
Jason Labossiere
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 10
By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst
September 10 – Stocks remain lower and crude oil notably higher at midday, with the major indexes mostly off their lows but still squarely in the red at the time of writing. The VIX broke above 18 for the first time since August 5th this morning but is hanging around 17.6 at the time of writing, up 7% on the day amid hawkish U.S. economic data, geopolitical escalation, and their subsequent upside pressure on energy prices. The dollar has also fallen from its morning highs but remains near 99 at midday. Treasuries continue to surge throughout the curve, with 2-year yields pushing above 4.54%, 10-year yields above 4.92%, and 30-year yields at 5.35%. Nearby WTI is now up 5.3% on the day to trade near $101.8 while nearby Brent is up nearly 6% to trade near $107.2. The ags have moved mostly higher following the ongoing escalations in the Black Sea, while soybeans continue to lead the way higher amid ongoing large-scale Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and the additional support to soybean oil after reports of fresh Russian strikes impacting the edible oil sector.
Russia struck a Bunge sunflower oil refinery in Ukraine’s Dnipro today, with the extent of the damage still unknown but a Bunge spokesperson reporting that a section of the facility was impacted but no employees were injured. As we’ve been warning for some time now, this is not just a wheat story, but also a feed grain and edible oil story. Ukraine is historically the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter, followed closely by Russia, with the two combined accounting for the majority of global supply. As such, restriction of movement via the Black Sea causes an outsized impact in this space. Ultimately, the most important destination to watch amid this disruption is India, the world’s largest sunflower oil importer by far. This typically makes up roughly 20% of their total edible oil imports, making the disruption large enough to matter materially, but small enough that they can substitute toward palm or soybean oil. We’re already seeing this play out in their import data, with Reuters reporting India importing a record volume of soybean oil last month. Amid the context of the ongoing energy shock and subsequent shift toward heavier biofuel inclusion, including in India, as well as the strong El Niño conditions historically impacting palm oil supply in Southeast Asia, this comes more into focus. Soybean oil futures are up nearly 1.7% on the day, surging following reports of this Russian strike hitting the newswires. Again, the extent of the damage from today’s strike is unknown but serves as a reminder to keep this complex in mind amid the ongoing escalations between Russia and Ukraine.
Existing home sales slipped to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.98M in August, a 2.0% month-on-month drop that matched analyst estimates but represents the lowest monthly sales seen since May 2025. Regionally speaking, the sharpest drop in sales was in the Northeast (-4.0%), followed by the Midwest (-3.1%), and South (-1.6%), while the West held steady. The National Association of Realtors pointed to rising mortgage rates as the driver of the slowdown, no surprise given the sharp increase in rates that have been tracking the 10-year treasury yield higher through the latter half of 2026 which we outlined yesterday. Today’s fresh surge higher does little to help this situation.
The more constructive part of this morning’s data was the uptick in supply, with listings rising 3.2% month-on-month to 1.62M, marking the first time inventory has exceeded the 1.6M mark since November 2019. This puts existing home supply at 4.9 months’ worth of demand, the highest level seen in more than a decade. The median sales price of an existing home fell 1.2% month-on-month to $429,100, now 3.1% off the all-time high of $442,800 set back in June but 1.6% above a year ago. The chart below shows the disconnect seen between existing home sales and prices seen in recent years. Overall, this morning’s data points to a housing market that remains constrained by affordability due to rising mortgage rates and still-elevated sales prices, but softer sales and rising inventories appear to be cooling price growth without yet producing a meaningful decline in home values. The key variable to watch from here will be mortgage rates, as any sustained decline in borrowing costs could quickly improve affordability and unlock some of the demand currently being held on the sidelines.
- Grains & Oilseeds
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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 10
September 10 – Stocks remain lower and crude oil notably higher at midday, with the major indexes mostly off their lows but still squarely in the red at the time of writing. The VIX broke above 18 for the first time since August 5th this morning but is hanging around 17.6 at the time of writing, up 7% on the day amid hawkish U.S. economic data, geopolitical escalation, and their subsequent upside pressure on energy prices. The dollar has also fallen from its morning highs but remains near 99 at midday. Treasuries continue to surge throughout the curve, with 2-year yields pushing above 4.54%, 10-year yields above 4.92%, and 30-year yields at 5.35%. Nearby WTI is now up 5.3% on the day to trade near $101.8 while nearby Brent is up nearly 6% to trade near $107.2. The ags have moved mostly higher following the ongoing escalations in the Black Sea, while soybeans continue to lead the way higher amid ongoing large-scale Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and the additional support to soybean oil after reports of fresh Russian strikes impacting the edible oil sector.
Mike Castle
- Grains & Oilseeds
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