Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 15 Sep 2025, 17:01

Today's Perspective Video: More Chinese Trade Deal Rumors

September 15 - New record highs were hit on Wall Street again today as traders anticipate a resumption of the rate cut cycle that's been on pause since December, and on an announced deal for China to transfer ownership of TikTok. The Fed's policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week to discuss a possible rate cut. The VIX is trading near 15 at midday, while the dollar index is trading near 97.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.03%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.53%. Crude oil prices are up 1% this morning on a couple of more Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. while the grain and oilseed markets were generally mixed to firmer in this morning's trade.

Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association account for roughly 95% of the monthly soybean crush in the United States, depending on the month. NOPA reported this morning that its members crushed 189.8 million bushels of soybeans in August, up 20% from the previous year's pace, and above the average trade guess of 182.9 million bushels. StoneX had the highest pre-report estimate at 185.6 million bushels, but it came in above that as well. We'll need to wait until the end of the month to get non-NOPA crush, but today's numbers suggest that total 2024-25 soybean crush came to 2.446 billion bushels, which would exceed USDA's target by 16 million bushels.

USDA inspected 59.5 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending September 11, along with 29.6 million bushels of soybeans, 27.7 million bushels of wheat, and 1.4 million bushels of grain sorghum. The grain sorghum export marketing year is off to a sluggish start. To be clear, I'm not sure where USDA thinks that we're going to find 225 million bushels of export business in the current marketing year as long as China remains absent. We exported roughly 95 million bushels in the previous marketing year with China being largely absent. USDA raised its wheat export target by 25 million to 900 million bushels on Friday, which would be the highest in five years. Yet, our marketing year to date export inspections a little over a fourth of the way through the year are 23 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit that target.

We're now two weeks into the 2025-26 marketing year for corn and soybeans, and they're already making some headlines. USDA inspected 85 million bushels of corn in the first 11 days of the new marketing year, which is more than double the previous year's 41.4 million bushel total, and it exceeds the early seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's record target for the year by 19 million bushels. USDA reported 890 million bushels of export commitments as of September 4, up 69% from the previous year's pace of 526 million bushels, and the 2nd highest total on record to start a marketing year. The only year that was higher was the 2021-22 marketing year, in which China had made large commitments. It's yet to be seen whether we can sustain this pace, but for now it supports strong demand for corn.

The big concern for soybean exports is the absence of China. No shipments to China have been made thus far in the first two weeks of the marketing year because China has yet to purchase a single bushel from us. The five-year average for the start of the new marketing year would be for China to have committed to nearly 400 million bushels by this point. Meanwhile, it has committed to take shipment of 625 million bushels of South American inventories over the next several months. Yet, USDA export inspections through the first 11 days of the marketing year total 39 million bushels, which is a five-year high pace, as China squeezes other customers out of the Brazil space.

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