Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 18

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 18 Sep 2025, 16:31

Today's Perspective Video: China's Soybean Pivot Raises Questions for U.S. Agriculture

September 18 - Weekly jobless claims fell the day after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates due to a deteriorating jobs market. One week's data doesn't a trend make, but the same thing can be said for the previous week's spike that raised cries for the rate cut. Weekly jobless claims fell to 231K in the week ending September 13, down from 264K the previous week, and below analyst expectations of 246K claims. The four-week moving average slipped slightly to 240K, down from 240.75K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending September 6 dropped by 7K to 1.920 million, and that was a drop from the previous week that was also revised lower by 12K. The four-week moving average for continuing claims dropped by 10,250 to 1.932 million. Initial claims for unemployment benefits by former Federal civilian workers in the week ending September 6 totaled 572, up 45 from the previous week. Continuing claims filed by Federal civilian workers in the week ending August 30 totaled 7,863, down 348 from the previous week.

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to 23.2 this month, up from -0.3 in August, and well above analyst expectations of 3.0. Indices for general activity, new orders and shipments all rose this month. The employment index was unchanged, but continuing to show growth. The survey indicated widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Oddly, the New York survey showed an opposite response on Monday, suggesting that local dynamics may be playing into more of suppressed economic activity in that region.

New record highs were seen for the major stock indices today, although they have since pulled back from those highs as the dollar rallies on the strength of 10-year Treasury yields. We saw the same thing a year ago, when yields on 10-year Treasuries rallied when the Fed started its last rate cutting cycle, triggering inflation talk amid concerns of fiscal spending problems. Two major wire services wrote stories lately about coming inflation playing out in the commodity markets, so perhaps that's getting some traction as well. The VIX is trading closer to 16 at midday, while the dollar index is trading notably higher near 97.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are nearly 10 basis points higher than two days ago as they trade near 4.11%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.57%. Crude oil prices are modestly weaker, while the grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker on the dollar strength as well.

Exporters sold 48.5 million bushels of corn in the week ending September 11, along with 33.9 million bushels of soybeans, 13.9 million bushels of wheat, and 4.0 million bushels of grain sorghum. We're 15 weeks into the wheat marketing year, with total export commitments sitting at 481 million bushels - 56 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year. Corn commitments remain hot as well. We're only in the second week of the corn and soybean marketing years, but corn commitments already total 938 million bushels - the second largest total on record for this point in the year and up 68% from the previous year's pace. In fact, this year's total exceeds the early seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 175 million bushels, even though that target is already at a record 2.975 billion bushels. It's a different story for soybeans, where commitments to date total just 378 million bushels, down 36% from the previous year's pace, and a 17-year low for this time of year. In fact, commitments to date fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 252 million bushels, and the deficit is growing.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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