Perspective: Morning Commentary December 31

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 31 Dec 2025, 14:37

Today's Perspective Video: Taiwan Showdown: Crisis Averted or Commodity Market Risk Ahead?

December 31 – 2025 comes to an end today. The markets will be closed for the New Year’s Holiday tomorrow, returning to wrap up the week in what will likely be another thinly traded session on Friday. It’s been a very tumultuous year, but you wouldn’t necessarily know it by looking at the stock market. Stock futures came under modest pressure overnight, but they were generally firming as we approached today’s opening bell. The VIX is trading just above 14.5 this morning, while the dollar index is trading near 98.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.15%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.47% as the yield curve slowly steepens. Crude oil prices were modestly higher this morning, while the grain and oilseed sector traded mostly lower.

First-time claims for jobless benefits fell to 199K in the week ending December 27, down from 215K the previous week, and below analyst expectations of 218K. Yet, the four-week moving average crept slightly higher to 218.75K claims, up from 217K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending December 20 fell to 1.866 million, down 47K from the previous week, which was also revised lower by 10K. The four-week moving average dropped by 17,750 to 1.874 million. Initial claims filed by former Federal civilian employees totaled 812 in the week ending December 20, up 7 from the previous week. Continuing claims filed by former Federal civilian employees in the week ending December 13 totaled 13,390, up 503 from the previous week. Overall, these are good numbers, especially with the continuing claims numbers showing a significant drop, although we’ll need to see how that trend holds as we go into the new calendar year.

The S&P 500 stock index starts trade today up 12.8% year-to-date as we prepare to close out the year today, while the Nasdaq 100 is up 15.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 9.9%. Not bad for a year in which many “experts” worried that we would head into a recession. Remember when the yield curve inverted in the summer of 2022? Those same “experts” were confident that we were going into a recession, and it never happened. Many of those same “experts” predicted the same on “Liberation Day,” but again it never happened. To be sure, our economy averaged a recession every six to seven years over the past 75 years, with 13 recessions since the end of World War II. The average length of a recession over that period of time was 10 to 11 months. Our most recent recession was short and brief, and man created, during the pandemic of 2020. The last true recession that we’ve experienced in the United States was the Great Recession of December 2007 to June 2009.

The strongest performers in the commodity world in 2025 start with silver, which sits 128.8% higher today than where it started the year, according to Finviz, followed by platinum up 108.2%, Palladium up 70.3%, and gold up 54.8%. These metals have been bolstered by a combination of increased demand for green energy, the explosion of AI use, and increased central bank purchases of gold as geopolitical tensions increased. Copper prices were close behind, up 31.3% year to date. Next, you need to look to the protein sector. Protein supplies tightened further this year as the impact of a smaller cow herd in the States was felt, combined with a rise of relatively inelastic demand for meat in the American diet, aided by the increased adoption of GLP weight loss drugs. Feeder cattle prices are up 35.1% from where they started the year, while live cattle futures are up 27.0%, and lean hogs gained 17.3%. Soybean oil prices are up 15.7%, but well off their highs for the year as the industry continues to wait for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to complete its biofuel regulations for 2026 & 2027. Heating oil prices are up 10.9% on the year, but crude oil prices are down 10.1%. Soybean prices are down 2.4%, while corn prices are down 13.6%, cotton prices are down 13.0%, and wheat prices are down 19.4%. The big loser of the year was orange juice, which starts trade today down 57.3% on the year, followed by cocoa, which is down 41.8% and rough rice down 35.5%. Lumber prices for building that new home are down 23.5%, although you wouldn’t know it looking at the price of new homes today.

Our StoneX commodity tracker shows the strongest 10-year correlation with the consumer price index to be the grain and oilseed sector at 0.88, followed by the energy sector at 0.84. Historically, the money tends to flow in or out of these sectors based on market perceptions of where inflation is headed. Despite the headlines, the market currently is trading expectations of lower inflation over the next couple of years, with the US 2-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate falling below 2.3% for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2024. Both the grain and oilseeds, as well as the crude oil market, are well supplied currently, providing a negative fundamental bias, but the lower inflation expectations have generally led to a negative bias from the money flow part of the market as well to close out 2025. The question is, will that change as we head into 2026? Will we see increased economic activity as the incentives of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” kick in? I’ll take a deeper look at 2026 on Friday as we start the new year.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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