Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 2

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 02 Apr 2026, 12:58

Today's Perspective Video: War Fears or Crop Facts

April 2 – Stock futures tumbled overnight, following President Trump’s address to the nation last night, while commodity prices took off again, led by energy prices. Speculative ownership of food and energy-based commodities became the theme once again overnight. The VIX (Washington’s fear index) is trading near 28 this morning, reflecting elevated fear levels, while the dollar index is trading near 100.1, resuming its safe-haven status, and suggesting foreign interest in parking investments here in the States. The markets will be closed for the Good Friday Easter holiday tomorrow, giving three days for headlines to create risk while the markets are closed, adding to today’s volatility. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.35% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.83%. WTI crude oil prices surged higher to trade near $112 this morning, surpassing Brent crude that is trading near $109 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector followed crude oil higher, with investors worried about the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed to both energy and fertilizer movement.

I didn’t hear anything different in President Trump’s speech to the nation last night than what he and his Administration had been saying this week, but the markets certainly heard something different. President Trump essentially gave Iran an ultimatum – sign our peace treaty or we will unleash the entire power of the U.S. military on you to eliminate you, or as he said, the U.S. military will send Iran “back to the Stone Ages.” It’s just another way of saying what he and others on his team have been saying in recent days. The president doesn’t want this to linger into a long-term war as so many other wars have over the decades. That would favor Iran, allowing Iran time to turn the world against Israel and the United States, while also allowing time for the U.S. electorate to turn on President Trump. We’ve heard considerable rhetoric in recent days about how pivotal the days ahead will be, resulting in either a peace agreement or total victory. Investors heard that to mean, the war is almost over, selectively not hearing that the choice belongs to Iran, and this regime has never demonstrated anything but a fight to the death mentality. I assumed then that we would see the full impact of the U.S. military then unleashed on Iran to eliminate the current regime, whose air force and navy have already been destroyed. Trump is assuming that would not take more than two to three weeks to complete those operations, which is within the original stated timeframe.

President Trump also challenged the rest of the world to “take back the Strait of Hormuz,” as he and his team have been recently saying, and as I addressed yesterday. International cooperation would increase the speed at which the Strait could be reopened. The president told the world that the United States doesn’t need that oil, but rather that we would assist other nations in taking back the Strait. He encouraged other nations to buy U.S. oil in the meantime, which is part of the reason why WTI crude oil surged as high as it did overnight, overtaking Brent crude oil in the process. Keep in mind that the president is battling a public relations battle, while also positioning for negotiations in his remarks, just as Iran is doing. Winning any war is about public positioning as much as it is military might. The United States does produce more energy than we consume, but as I stated yesterday, we still have to import the types of oil that our refineries were designed to process, while we export crude oil that those refineries cannot process. It’s a world market, and the barrels that we need can also be easily pulled toward other countries when the arbitrage incentivizes. The same is true for fertilizer. We do not live on an independent island. So there’s a lot of positioning rhetoric in President Trump’s comments. But the bottom line is that the President fully intends to wrap up this war within the next two to three weeks, when the focus can be on reopening the Strait. Restoring production though will take much longer, as we’ve previously discussed.

First time claims for unemployment benefits fell to a low 202K in the week ending March 28, down from 211K the previous week, and below analyst expectations of 213K claims. The four-week moving average slipped to 207.75K claims, down from 210.75K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending March 21 rose to 1.841 million, up 25K from the previous week. The four-week moving average for continuing claims dropped by 7,500 to 1.839 million, so continuing claims largely remain within their recent range. Today’s Challenger job cut report indicated that firms gave notice in March of possible layoffs of 60,620, up from 48,307 the previous month.

Headlines continue to drive the grain and oilseed markets, with money flow driven by investor perceptions about how long the Strait of Hormuz might be closed to energy and fertilizer movement. We’re starting today with positive money flow into both the energy and food-based commodities, although that could change with the next headline. We have three days of headlines ahead that the markets will trade on Monday. Volatility will likely be with us until certainty returns, and that likely means an end to the Iran war with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within sight. Then we can assess what is needed for rebuilding infrastructure.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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