Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 6

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 06 Apr 2026, 13:28

April 6 – The Easter holiday did little to ease the rhetoric surrounding the war in Iran, with President Trump issuing an ultimatum to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday. Yet, the markets behaved overnight as if they had already priced in the additional risks heading into this week, with stock futures mixed, and commodity prices leaning weaker. The VIX hovered around 25 to start the week this morning, while the dollar index trades near 99.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.34%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.85%. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $112 per barrel, or roughly $4 off their session high, while Brent Crude oil trades near $108 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed, with the grains under modest pressure, while the oilseed market posts modest gains.

President Trump threatened to rain “hell” on Tehran if it failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday. That initially sent crude oil prices higher overnight. But then word emerged that a Pakastani-brokered peace plan was being considered by both sides, and the markets calmed down a bit as investors waited to hear if this might be the pathway to bring peace to the region, and to restore the flow of energy and fertilizer through the Strait. The deal reportedly called for an immediate ceasefire to allow negotiations to complete a broader peace deal within the next 15 to 20 days. It should be noted that an Iranian official told Reuters that Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of a temporary ceasefire, nor would it accept deadlines or pressure to reach a deal. That’s not a surprise. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard wants to project the image that it is in control. That’s what I would expect in any negotiations. It wants its followers to believe that it is winning this war so that they stay true to the cause. It should also be noted that Iran has a long history of negotiating things to death to prolong things as long as possible. It believes that time is on its side, and President Trump apparently believes that time favors Iran as well, which is why he’s pressing for things to happen sooner rather than later. As such, President Trump threatened to hit Iran’s energy and transport infrastructure hard if Iran failed to make a deal and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 P.M. EDT Tuesday.

Israel noted that it attacked Iran’s South Pars petrochemical complex today in Asaluyeh, with Iran’s news agency reporting explosions at the facility. Israel had previously hit the South Pars gas field in March before President Trump asked that it avoid critical energy infrastructure. Any energy infrastructure damaged could takes up to several years to repair after the war is over, depending on the scope of the damage. That raises risks for a prolonged global shortfall in energy, but natural gas from the facility is also a primary feedstock for the region’s critical fertilizer production that it exports around the world. Add to that a tender from India announced in the last few days to purchase a large 2.5 million metric tons of urea fertilizer, significantly adding to the demand side of the ledger at a time when supply is being curtailed, resulting in another price spike in global fertilizer prices over the weekend. It should be noted that our sources indicate that Israel avoided hitting the petrochemical company itself, but rather it targeted companies that provide electricity, water and oxygen to Assaluyeh. In other words, Israel was sending a message that it has the capability to do more, but it showed restraint against hitting actual critical infrastructure yet at this time. The next 36 hours will provide a pivotal point for this war to either ratchet down, or to escalate.

It was a great jobs report that was released on Friday, when much of the financial world was on holiday break. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy created 178K jobs in March, with the unemployment rate at a low 4.3%. The private sector provided 186K of those new jobs, and for the first time in a while, there was good distribution for where those jobs came from, reflecting an improving health in the jobs market. February was revised down by 41K jobs, while January was revised upward by 34K. Average hourly earnings were up just 0.2% on the month and 3.5% on the year. Yet the labor force participation rate fell to 61.9%, which is its lowest level since 1977 if you exclude the pandemic period. Nonetheless, it was a great report. This week we’re scheduled to get PCE inflation data for February (delayed), as well as consumer price index data for March. The latter is expected to show headline inflation jumping to 3.4% due in part to the war, while core inflation (excludes food & energy) rises to 2.7%.

Lost in all the above is the fact that USDA is expected to release its April WASDE crop report on Thursday. It could make modest adjustments to residual corn, wheat and soybean use as a result of the March 31 stocks report, while it could also bump its U.S. corn export target a bit higher. Soybean crush should get pushed higher, while exports slip a bit lower. Other than that, we shouldn’t see too many fireworks tied to this report, allowing the focus to shift increasingly to Midwest and Brazilian weather when war-related headlines aren’t driving price action. The next 36 hours will be critical for the energy and food-based commodities. A peace agreement likely removes some of the war premium, while escalation could generate more upfront demand for these commodities.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 28

July 28 – Stock futures were mixed to firmer overnight, as relative calm continues in the Middle East and as the Federal Open Market Committee begins two days of monetary policy discussion. The VIX is trading near 19, while the dollar index trades near 101.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.63%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.30%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 per barrel after actually probing below $80 earlier in the session, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector tried to bounce in the overnight session following yesterday’s active selloff, but it quickly succumbed to additional selling pressure as crude oil added to its losses, with the exception of corn that held modest gains based on tumbling crop ratings.

Arlan SudermanTue, 28 Jul 2026, 13:25

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 27

July 27 – It was a quiet weekend for Iran, which investors interpreted as a sign that there’s still a chance for peace in the Middle East. Yet, Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked Saudi Arabian oil facilities in the Red Sea, providing a reminder that risks remain significant. Even so, overnight market action again reflected sentiment that investors continue to read headlines through a filter of hope – desperately wanting to believe that peace is just around the corner. Commodity prices tumbled overnight while stock futures pushed higher, with the VIX slipping below 18 and the dollar index trading near 101.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries traded near 4.65%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries traded near 4.32%. WTI crude oil is trading near $84 this morning, although that’s a couple of dollars off its session low, while Brent trades near $91 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were mostly weaker overnight as well, following crude oil prices lower, while also reacting to improving weather models for the Midwest as we approach the key crop development month of August.

Arlan SudermanMon, 27 Jul 2026, 13:48

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U.S. Corn Exports Gain From Shifting Global Trade

U.S. corn exports could gain support as Black Sea disruption and weaker European production redirect buyers toward alternative suppliers. Rising Brazilian ethanol demand may further strengthen the competitive position of US corn in the 2026 and 2027 marketing year.

Editorial TeamFri, 24 Jul 2026, 22:21

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