Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 7

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Tue, 07 Apr 2026, 13:02

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Senior Commodities Economist

April 7 – Markets are on edge as tonight’s deadline approaches, with President Trump reiterating his threat to ramp-up strikes on Iranian infrastructure, namely bridges and power plants, if no deal is reached by 8:00 PM Eastern time (3:30 AM in Tehran). We may be seeing warning shots already, with reports of several explosions on Kharg Island overnight, through which the vast majority of Iran’s oil exports pass. This also follows yesterday’s Israeli strikes cutting power to Iran’s Pars petrochemical complex on the country’s south-central coast. Additionally, Iran’s state news agency, IRNA, reported strikes having hit two bridges today, a railroad bridge in Kashan and a highway bridge in the country’s Northwest, perhaps a sign of things to come. Remaining publicly defiant, the IRGC put out a statement warning that it would “deprive the U.S. and its allies of the region’s oil and gas for years” if Trump follows through on these threats. So, the market is forced to sit back and hope for signs of potential diplomacy by day’s end. It is worth pointing out that we’ve seen this cycle of deadline threats followed by subsequent delays several times already in the five-plus week-old conflict, but having to decide whether this time is going to be different is the question traders are forced to reckon with.

This is driving crude oil prices higher to start the day, with nearby WTI climbing to a fresh high since the March 9^th spike, briefly breaking above $116.50 but currently trading around $115/barrel, while nearby Brent futures are slightly higher around $110.50/barrel. Stock futures are pointing to a lower open, with the Nasdaq showing the sharpest decline, followed by the S&P 500, then Dow Jones. This elevated uncertainty is driving the VIX higher as well, up over 5% to start the day as it trades near the 25.5 mark. The dollar is looking at a quiet start to the day as it hover right around unchanged just below the 100 mark at the time of writing, still up notably over the last couple months. Treasuries are looking at a quietly lower start, with 10-year yields trading around 4.33% and 2-year yields trading around 3.84%. Similarly, the ags are mostly quietly in the red to start the day, though nearby soybeans are trying to cling to some slight gains, while many eyes will be on the cattle market amid its recent strength after live cattle futures posted fresh contract highs yesterday.

USDA released their first official weekly Crop Progress report of the spring yesterday afternoon, giving the market a fresh look at the state of the U.S. growing season. Spring plantings are in their very early stages, with 3% of the corn crop in the ground nationally, as well as 2% of the spring wheat crop, 5% of the cotton crop, and 12% of the milo (sorghum) crop. This is 1% ahead of the previous 5-year average pace on the corn side, 1% behind the average on spring wheat and milo, and even with the average on cotton. It’s still too early for some of the main producing areas to get rolling (for crop insurance purposes, that is), but we’ll be in full swing in the next week or two, bringing attention back to Midwest weather. The Eastern Midwest saw more rain in recent days, adding to solid totals that have aided soil moisture profiles ahead of upcoming corn and soybean planting, but western portions of the Plains continued to miss out.

That dryness has taken its toll on the winter wheat crop, with ratings at the national level coming in at only 35% good/excellent, the worst for the week in three years. This marks a 13% decline from the final weekly Crop Progress of the fall back in late November, the sharpest decline over the winter dormancy period in four years. As could be expected, the issue lies on the Plains, where the worst of the dryness lingers. Colorado and Oklahoma came in the lowest, both rated only 12% good/excellent, the lowest for the week since 2011 and 2018, respectively. Texas (17% good/excellent) and Nebraska (19% good/excellent) were not far behind, marking their respective lows for the week since 2023 and 2013. Forecasts show good chances for rains across the Plains over the next two weeks, limiting the price reaction to yesterday’s release, though the big question will be how far west these systems make it. Colorado, Nebraska, and far western Kansas look to be the most at risk based on current expectations, but that will certainly be worth keeping an eye on in the weeks ahead.

The soft wheat growing areas of the U.S. are in much better shape, however, with soft red winter wheat ratings in the Eastern Midwest largely near or above averages at this time. Again, that coincides with the solid rains seen across the region this spring. Soft white wheat areas of the Pacific Northwest are in great shape as well, with Washington leading the way at a lofty 86% good/excellent, a full 30% above their previous 5-year average for the week and marking their highest ratings at this time since 2000.

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