Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 15 Aug 2025, 13:40

August 15 – Stock futures were generally mixed to higher overnight. They were relatively unaffected by this morning’s retail sales data, and they continue to flirt with record high levels. The VIX slipped back below 15, reflecting relative calm on Wall Street, with investors looking forward to an anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month. The dollar index is trading near 97.9 this morning. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.30%, consolidating at psychological resistance near 4.30%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.73%. Crude oil prices are under pressure again this morning after a brief bounce on Thursday, as the market prices in fears of stocks building in the months ahead. The grain and oilseed sector traded mostly higher overnight, with corn prices holding above Tuesday’s post-report lows.

Retail sales rose 0.5% month-on-month in July, matching expectations, but still a hefty increase. The June number was revised to 0.9% growth on the month, up from the 0.6% originally reported. Retail sales excluding vehicles rose 0.3% on the month in July, again matching analyst expectations, and a more reasonable increase. But here again, the June number was revised to 0.8% growth on the month, up from the 0.5% originally reported. Retail sales minus both vehicles and gas rose just 0.2% on the month, while the June number was revised 20 basis points higher to 0.8% growth on the month. This data suggests that a big portion in the increase in retail sales in July was tied to vehicle purchases – perhaps people taking advantage of late deals to buy foreign-made cars ahead of the impact of higher tariffs. A more positive spin might be that car buyers returned to the market in July as consumer confidence started to ease higher again. Regardless, the bottom-line number for the bulk of the economy is a 0.2% month-on-month increase in retail sales, which reflects an economy that continues to grow, albeit at a slow pace.

Import prices rose 0.4% on the month in July due to tariffs, up from -0.1% in June, and up from analyst expectations of 0.1% growth. Yet, import prices were still at -0.1% year-on-year, so costs were still slightly lower than they were in July of last year. Export prices were up 0.1% on the month in July, down from 0.5% in June. Export prices were up 2.2% on the year in July, down from 2.8% in June. As such, we’re not really exporting inflation, but we are modestly importing inflation, which showed up in this week’s producer price index data as well.

The Empire State manufacturing index rose to 11.9 in August, up from 5.5 in July, and better than the 0.5 expected by analysts. A number above zero reflects month-on-month growth for New York’s manufacturing sector. Both new orders and shipments increased in the state of New York this month, while delivery times lengthened significantly. Supply availability worsened somewhat, as inventories declined. Employment edged a bit higher, while the average workweek remained steady. Input price increases continued to be seen across the sector, although little changed from July. However, the pace of selling price increases slowed in August. Capital plans remain soft amid some ongoing uncertainty in the economy. Firms indicated that conditions continue to improve, although the optimism score waned a bit compared to July.

China’s official retail sales numbers rose 3.7% year-on-year in July, down from expectations of 4.6% and down from 4.8% growth in June. Retail sales in China have been very solid for those items being subsidized by the government, and sluggish for other sectors. However, stimulus programs tend to run out mid-year, and it takes some time for them to be implemented for the second half of the year. China’s stock market is anticipating those second half stimulus program funds, but we have yet to see the scope and implementation of that stimulus. China faces a challenge in its centrally controlled economy. It built massive production capacity to keep people employed, dumping what it produced on the world market at cheap prices. But the world is kicking back, placing tariffs on China due to its dumping practices. It implemented an “involution” initiative to reduce over capacity, but that reduces employment, so it must now find other ways to employ people to avoid social unrest. Overproduction creates deflation, which is negative for the economy, but so is unemployment. Either way, the costs to the government continue to pile up. It’s biggest problem is the property sector, which continues to lose value. China has tried some piecemeal policies to support the property sector, but values continue to decline, weighing on consumer sentiment.

December corn again held above Tuesday’s low of $4.92 per bushel Thursday, giving it new life again overnight. Soybean and wheat prices also bounced overnight. The corn market will now pay close attention to reports from the field as the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour crosses the Corn Belt next week. Traders will be watching for evidence that the crop may be even bigger than that indicated by USDA on Tuesday. That may be hard to accomplish at these high yield levels, particularly with the crop’s maturity sped up by warm overnight temperatures.

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.