Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now.  Download your report  →

StoneX logo
Contact us

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 13

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Today's Perspective Video: Ukraine Escalates, Increasing Wheat Market Risks.

July 13 – We’re back at war in the Persian Gulf, adding to problems in the Black Sea war; threatening global energy supplies this morning, with risks for food-based commodities as well. Key inflation data will be released over the next two mornings. The equities are mixed to firmer as a result, while the VIX remains relatively low near 16. The dollar index continues to chop around near 101.0 this morning. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.58%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23, reflecting a fresh 16-month high. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $74 this morning, while Brent trades near $78. Corn and soybean prices followed crude oil higher overnight, while wheat prices turned lower despite the fact that the Kerch Strait is still closed this morning.

Warfare is changing. Commodities are increasingly the target of forces seeking to get an edge in military conflicts in both the Persian Gulf and the Black Sea region, with energy – and now food – based commodities the target. Or perhaps I should say the transport of energy and food-based commodities are the target. We’ve seen that explicitly play out in the Strait of Hormuz over the past nearly five months of the war with Iran. We’ve seen signs of it in the Black Sea Region as well during Russia’s four-year war on Ukraine. But the stakes are rising, and that’s leaving key energy and food-based commodities at risk.

Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz when the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. It used fear and intimidation to sufficiently increase fear of passage through the Strait to effectively close it, shutting the world off from roughly 20% of its energy and nearly a third of its nitrogen fertilizer supplies, in addition to other freight. The United States decimated Iran’s navy and air force, but Iran still had sufficient missile and drone capability to hit ships trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz It reignited the war, leading President Trump to declare an end to the ceasefire, when it hit four ships in a 24-hour period. The battle focus now is now on gaining control of this vital corridor so that energy and fertilizer can flow freely to meet the world’s needs. Just half a dozen ships traversed the Strait yesterday, primarily with transponders turned off.

But a bigger threat to food-based commodities may be unfolding in the Black Sea Region, even though the initial target is energy transportation. Ukraine is trying to shut down Russia’s ability to provide fuel to the war effort, striking refineries across Russia, shutting down at least a third of Russia’s diesel production capacity, in addition to gasoline production. That’s a big reason why U.S. diesel and gas prices remain elevated. Ukraine’s next strategy has been to attack Russia’s infrastructure for transporting fuel to the front lines of the war by attacking ships in the Sea of Azov. Reuters reports that Ukraine hit 105 Russian-linked ships in the Sea of Azov in an eight-day period – most of them carrying crude oil or fuel. The risk became great enough that Russia shut down the Kerch Strait to all ship traffic on Friday. It was apparently concerned about security risks of to the Kerch Bridge, which is a key supply line for the war effort – connecting Russia with the Crimea Peninsula. The Kerch Strait was to reopen today, but it remains closed. News reports suggest that the Russian Security Council will discuss the Kerch Strait this week.

The Kerch Strait is a key trade route for about 10% of Russia’s crude oil exports, but it also accounts for a third of Russia’s wheat exports. Russia accounts for better than 22% of world wheat exports. Russia retaliated over the weekend with intense strikes on Ukraine’s export infrastructure, resulting in the shutdown of operations at Ukraine’s Chornomorsk port near Odessa due to significant damage done by that attack. There is currently no known timeline for reopening the port. Russia has not yet shifted its focus toward attacking grain ships leaving Ukraine, but that is also a risk. Ukraine currently accounts for roughly 7% of global wheat exports, along with being the world’s fourth largest exporter of corn, as well as an exporter of edible oils and other products.  

Extreme heat will be seen in far northern and western portions of the Corn Belt this week, before moderating for much of the remainder of the month. Pollination is largely further to the south of this week’s heat. Overnight lows will be elevated but should moderate as we get into next week as well. Overall, it’s difficult to find a clear weather threat at this point for the corn and soybean crops, although the heat could take a bit off of maturing spring wheat production. China continues to buy soybeans at a fairly normal pace for this time of year. As such, it will likely be some time before we know whether it will import more than what USDA already has factored into its balance sheet. The rest of the month moderates before another heat event arrives in early August, according to current model runs. As such, the primary focus will likely be on grain movement out of the Black Sea, as well as the pace and makeup of Chinese buying. China hasn’t made any notable purchases of corn and/or wheat yet as part of its commitment to purchase $17 billion in non-soybean Ag commodities, so that’s what the market is watching currently.       

  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 13

July 13 – We’re back at war in the Persian Gulf, adding to problems in the Black Sea war; threatening global energy supplies this morning, with risks for food-based commodities as well. Key inflation data will be released over the next two mornings. The equities are mixed to firmer as a result, while the VIX remains relatively low near 16. The dollar index continues to chop around near 101.0 this morning. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.58%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23, reflecting a fresh 16-month high. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $74 this morning, while Brent trades near $78. Corn and soybean prices followed crude oil higher overnight, while wheat prices turned lower despite the fact that the Kerch Strait is still closed this morning.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Corn Belt Forecast Turns Milder After Weeks of Weather Model Confusion

Weather models are suddenly telling a friendlier story for the Corn Belt just as wheat prices spike on Black Sea risk. A late reversal in forecast guidance is now capping gains in corn and soybeans heading into a critical pollination stretch.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds

Ukraine's Refinery Strikes on Russia Ripple Into Farm Fuel Costs

Russia's diesel export ban and Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries are tightening global fuel supply well beyond the Middle East. The disruption is already reaching Brazil's planting season and U.S. farm input costs.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds
Read more
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.