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Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Perspective: Morning Commentary
 
Arlan Suderman
Chief Commodities Economist

 

 

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

 

July 24 – Global equity shares are mixed this morning after a widespread rally yesterday; the Dow Jones closed within four points of its December 2024 all-time high after a 500+point gain, though DJIA futures took a hit this morning as UnitedHealth confirmed a U.S. DOJ probe over its Medicare billing practices. Trade deal optimism is prevailing, after President Trump announced a deal with Japan and an agreement with the European Union looks near. Major earnings reports post-market yesterday were mixed, with Google parent Alphabet beating expectations while Tesla and IBM Q2 results disappointed investors. The market is interested to see what comes from President Trump’s trip to visit the Federal Reserve and Chairman Powell today.

 

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged today, a non-decision that was widely expected by economists after President Christine Lagarde strongly hinted at a “wait-and-see” approach last month. It was the first time in a year that the ECB did not cut rates, after the seventh straight reduction last month brought European rates to their lowest levels since December 2022. The trade is still looking for another quarter-point cut to 1.75% at some point in the second half of this year. For comparison, the U.S. Federal Reserve target rate is expected to remain at 4.25-4.50% when our central bank meets next week.

 

Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 came in at 217,000, down from 221k last week and below the 226k trade expectation; continuing claims as of 7/12 basically met expectations at 1.955 million, also roughly in line with 1.951 mln the week prior. The initial claims figure was the sixth straight weekly decline and the lowest since mid-April, underscoring overall labor market strength, though the recurring claims figure continues to hover around the highest levels since 2021, showing unemployed workers still having difficulty finding new jobs.

 

The grains are pointing higher this morning but not materially so; weekly export sales once again failed to inspire the market. U.S. exporters sold 25.3 million bushels of old-crop (2024/25) corn on the week ending July 17, along with 28.9 mbu of new-crop (2025/26) supplies. Cumulative new-crop sales remain in line with historical paces heading into the September 1 marketing year change, but old-crop sales continue to exceed even record USDA expectations, 4% ahead of the seasonal pace needed to meet that lofty 2.75 million bushel estimate.

 

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This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


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