StoneX logo
Contact us

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 22

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

June 22 – Stock futures were generally steady to firmer to start the week, with investors viewing U.S. / Iran negotiations with cautious optimism. The VIX is trading near 17 this morning, while the dollar index remains strong near 101.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.50%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries traded at fresh 16-month highs near 4.23%, as the curve continues to flatten. WTI crude oil is trading near $75 per barrel this morning, while Brent trades near $78 per barrel. Wheat prices were modestly weaker this morning, while soybeans followed soybean oil higher. However, the stronger dollar provided headwinds for much of the complex this morning.

Negotiations continue between Iran and the United States. Reports from the negotiations suggest that they’re going well, but one never knows what to believe from the negotiations. In reality, I believe that Iran is doing whatever it needs to do to draw this out. There were reports over the weekend that Iran is giving orders to Hezbollah to continue to strike Israel, knowing that Israel will respond, and then Iran can accuse Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement. President Trump posted on his Truth Social account over the weekend that Iran needs to stop the Hezbollah attacks on Israel, or he will order strikes on Iran once again. Thousands of years of hatred between the two sides will not be easily settled, which is why I remain skeptical that this is anything but a stall and survive tactic. The Iran Revolutionary Guard’s goal is to survive for another day to fight by stalling, while President Trump would like to see gas prices go down ahead of the midterm elections.

Gas prices continue to go down as the ceasefire holds, which is working in Trump’s favor for now. RBOB gas futures are off by more than 20% from their wartime highs, while crude oil prices are more than 35% off their highs. Tankers loaded with crude oil are slowly moving out through the Strait of Hormuz amid reports this morning that four tankers are positioning to move into the Persian Gulf via the Strait. But that’s a mere small fraction of what we need to see. Some analysts believe that we won’t see the flow of oil through the Strait return fully to pre-war levels until 2027, leaving a building deficit in global supplies. Many nation’s have indicated that they intend to strengthen their reserves once that flow is fully restored, suggesting even stronger demand for crude oil. And all of this assumes that the fighting doesn’t resume at some point. The bottom line is that commodity price risk is going to be with us for a while.

Trade tensions between China and the United States are slowly building again, after easing when President Trump visited Beijing last month. China put new trade restrictions today on a dozen U.S. companies, including MP Materials and US Rare Earth. China’s Ministry of Commerce placed 10 U.S. defense companies on its control list, which bans exports of any Chinese made products to those firms with potential military uses. The critical factor is the imports of rare earth minerals and magnets essential for the production of defense weapons. China knows that our stockpiles are low following the Iran war, and it knows that we need rare earths for replacing those inventories. The United States is aggressively seeking ways to rebuild our own rare earth industry, but that takes times – several years for some rare earths. China’s restrictions also include other military sectors, including drones, robotics and aerospace. China excluded 46 U.S. companies, including Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Boeings defense division from government procurement. Even so, President Trump reiterated Friday that President Xi will be coming to the United States in September, and that Trump plans to return to China for a conference there later in the year. Trump and Xi are definitely playing hard ball with each other, but they’re doing so with dialogue to keep things from escalating into war. They each hold respect for each other’s hard-nosed approach to negotiation, and they actually have established a good business-like relationship based on that respect that should minimize the risk of war between the two powers for now.

USDA will update its weekly crop condition ratings this afternoon, with expectations that they will inch higher again this week. Growing conditions are nearly ideal right now for much of the Midwest. The exception being Nebraska, Colorado and Texas. Traders don’t consider Colorado or Texas as major contributors, and 60% of Nebraska crops are irrigated. Crop ratings across much of the rest of the Midwest are either near normal levels for mid-June, or well above that. Crops are particularly doing well in Iowa and Minnesota. We’ll need to watch whether the heat and dryness in Nebraska spreads north and east as the summer progresses. That’s not currently the thinking, but that’s a risk that we’ll need to keep our eyes on. Value buyers returned to the soybean oil market this morning, providing modest support for soybeans as well. We have little doubt about commercial demand for soybean oil going forward, but it’s yet unclear whether fund selling is done at this price level. Long-term, biofuel production should continue to draw down soybean oil stocks, as well as other feedstock supplies as well.      

  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 22

June 22 – Stock futures were generally steady to firmer to start the week, with investors viewing U.S. / Iran negotiations with cautious optimism. The VIX is trading near 17 this morning, while the dollar index remains strong near 101.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.50%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries traded at fresh 16-month highs near 4.23%, as the curve continues to flatten. WTI crude oil is trading near $75 per barrel this morning, while Brent trades near $78 per barrel. Wheat prices were modestly weaker this morning, while soybeans followed soybean oil higher. However, the stronger dollar provided headwinds for much of the complex this morning.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

China's US Soybean Pledge Faces a 10-Million-Ton Credibility Test

China committed to buy 25 million metric tons of US soybeans in the 2026-27 marketing year, but official forecasts and market skepticism suggest the actual figure could be 10 million tons lower. The gap between political commitment and commercial follow-through is now shaping how grain traders read every incoming export sale.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 18

June 18 – The rebound on Wall Street continues at midday, with the Nasdaq up 2.2%, S&P 500 up 1.0%, and Dow Jones up 0.3% at the time of writing. The VIX has fallen in turn, falling back to trade around 16.9 at midday after pushing as high as 18.8 yesterday. The dollar is adding to yesterday's gains, setting a fresh 13-month high around 100.8 earlier in the session and hanging just below that level at the time of writing. Treasuries are mixed on the day, with 10-year yields now just below unchanged as they hover near 4.443% and 2-year yields just above unchanged as they trade at 4.164%. Crude oil is continuing its decline in the wake of the MOU between the U.S. and Iran, with nearby WTI making a fresh low since early March at $74/barrel and nearby Brent doing the same as it trades around $77.85/barrel. That selling pressure continues to spill over to the broader commodity sector, with the ags mostly in the red at midday, save for some small gains in nearby feeder cattle futures.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
Read more
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.