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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 6

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Perspective: Morning Commentary
 
Arlan Suderman
Chief Commodities Economist

 

 

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

 

June 6 – Dow Jones futures are looking at a rebound this morning after two straight easing sessions, with the trade mostly content over new jobs data, as well as easing relations between the President and his adversaries. Tesla and Trump Media share are on the mend, with each of the three main stock indices up around 0.6%. Treasury yields were rising pre-jobs report and ticked higher after the release as well. The VIX remains steady as it has all month, around an 18 reading today. Traders will likely see added support for the Fed’s current “stay the course” view on future interest rates.

 

R.I.P. to the bro-mance between President Donald J. Trump and Tesla founder Elon Musk, as insults and allegations fly in both directions this week after Musk stepped down from his government cost-cutting DOGE role last week and went on to harshly criticize the President’s “Big Beautiful Bill” for wasteful spending and the rollback of electric vehicle tax credits. Tesla shares have tanked over the past two sessions but are looking to rebound this morning on rumors that Trump aides scheduled a call with Musk today to ease tensions.

 

On a more positive note, President Trump and Xi Jinping yesterday held more than a one-hour call and agreed to further talks, as well as inviting each other to visit their respective countries. Talking points reportedly included rare earth minerals and Xi’s desire to leave Taiwan alone, while Trump told reporters after the call that the two came to “a very positive conclusion” and said “We’re in very good shape with China and the trade deal”. We’re nearly a month in to the 90-day deal announced on May 12 that rolled back sharp threatened tariffs on both sides.

 

The U.S. economy created 139,000 jobs in the month of May, above the average trade estimate for 126k, though the April figure was revised lower from 177k to 147k and the March number also fell from 185k to 120k. The national unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% as expected, with labor force participation down slightly this month but average hourly earnings up a couple ticks. Federal government employment fell by another 22,000 in May, bringing overall government job cuts to 59,000 since January. Overall, today’s data points to continued reasonable labor market strength against a backdrop of trade policy uncertainty.

 

The grains have been in various states of rebound this week but momentum looks to have slowed into the end of the week; spot corn in particular continues to lag near lows as spec fund money keeps the pressure on. The December contract looked a bit more lively but has now run into resistance on the charts, with new-crop fundamentals weighing overall thanks to mostly ideal U.S. growing-season weather so far and a forecast that keeps bringing new rounds of beneficial rains to the Midwest and Plains. It will be difficult for the bulls to put up any type of fight without a real weather threat heading through the summer months…

 

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