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Matt Zeller
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 9
By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
June 9 – Stock futures found firm footing overnight, as peace hopes emerge again for the Middle East, although there’s little evidence that we’re any closer to a lasting peace deal in the region. Tech led the overnight gains as AI hopes and positive earnings reports combine with recent solid economic data to provide underlying support for the equities. Lower energy prices and Treasury yields this morning add tailwinds as well, although investors know those are good until the next headline says otherwise. The VIX continues to slowly ease back lower following Friday’s spike to seven-week highs, trading near 18 this morning, while the dollar index does the same as it trades near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.54%, as they continue to trend higher over the longer term, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.13%. Note that the yield curve continues on a path toward slowly flattening as inflation worries push the short end of the curve higher at a faster pace. We’re scheduled to get an update on consumer inflation data tomorrow morning, with wholesale inflation data coming on Thursday. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $89 per barrel this morning, while Brent trades near $92 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector traded mostly firmer overnight as these markets try to find some firmer footing, although soybean prices were steady to mixed in early trade today.
The Iran war continues to be the primary headline producer amid the ongoing stalemate between Iran and the United States. Iran and Israel are honoring a truce for now. Iran says that it will strike again is Israel resumes its campaign in Lebanon to strike at Hezbollah, while Israel says that it will do whatever is necessary to end Hezbollah’s strikes on its population. That leaves a very tenuous peace situation currently in the Middle East, as Hezbollah has shown little interest in stopping its attacks on Israel. Regardless, energy prices came under pressure overnight, which allowed Treasury yields to show a bit of weakness as well, despite the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping energy shipments through the passageway at no more than a trickle for now, relative to the need. As such, the global deficit continues to build.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is in North Korea today, meeting with Kim Jung Un. I wrote more about this last week, but we can’t overlook the significance of Xi’s visit to North Korea. Xi obviously felt it necessary to re-establish China’s role in North Korea following months of increased Russian relationship building with Kim Jung Un. Despite China’s “partnership” with Russia in recent years during the Ukraine war, there’s still an underlying distrust between China and Russia. A North Korea that is pro-Russia would be a risk should China and Russia have a falling out in their relationship. Russia still needs China as long as it is involved in the Ukraine war, but that need drops significantly if that war were to ever end, either by way of a peace treaty or by way of Ukraine losing the war. This has been a concern within China each time there is evidence of Russia toying with a peace treaty involving the United States. As such, Xi is leaving nothing to chance, making the unusual trip to neighboring North Korea to restrengthen his relationship with Kim Jung Un.
The National Federation of Independent Businesses’ small business optimism index slipped to 95.3 for May, down slightly from 95.9 in April, but below analyst expectations of 96.0. The survey’s uncertainty index rose 3 points to 91 in May, which is well above its historical average of 68. The NFIB’s employment index remained essentially flat at 100.3 in May, which is ever so slightly above the long-term average of 100.0. A seasonally adjusted 29% of small business owners reported in the May survey that they had job openings that they were unable to fill, which was down 5 points from the April survey and the lowest level since the heart of the pandemic in May 2020. AI enthusiasm may be driving Wall Street higher, but small businesses are struggling with higher fuel prices. Small businesses have a more difficult time passing those increased expenses on to their customers, relative to large corporate competitors.
The past couple of weeks have been ugly for the grain and oilseed markets, with fund liquidation the central story during that time. The selling got started in late May, but then rapidly accelerated when the weather forecasts turned more favorable for the Midwest at the end of the month, and then June ushered in relatively good crop ratings for the summer crops. Soybeans tried to hold out amid strong domestic biofuel demand, but they eventually yielded to the selling as well. The edible oils have been the bright spot to this point, essentially holding late May lows on the charts. This illustrates the perceived strength of the biofuel industry going forward. Anything can be vulnerable, but the strength of the biofuel program suggests that feedstock for biomass diesel production should see more reluctance among fund managers to build short positions for now. Near-term, both corn and wheat prices are finding support for now after hitting some chart objectives, leading up to Thursday’s USDA WASDE crop report.
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