Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 16

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 16 Mar 2022, 13:49

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

March 16 – It’s Fed Day on Wall Street, with the added ingredient of peace talk progress. That has Wall Street a bit more upbeat to start the day, although today’s key will be how we finish following this afternoon’s Fed activity. The VIX is trading near 28 this morning, reflecting an easing of anxiety on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading near 98.6, while yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 2.16%, after setting a new 32-month high 1.20% earlier in the morning. Crude oil prices are bouncing with stocks this morning, while the Ags were mixed in early trade.

Retail sales rose 0.3% month-on-month in February, falling short of analyst expectations of 0.4% growth. Retail sales minus vehicles rose just 0.2% month-on-month in February, falling well-below analyst expectations of 0.9% growth. Retail sales minus vehicles and gas contracted 0.4% in February, falling short of analyst expectations of 0.6% growth. Part of the reason for the disappointment was a big upward revision in January data that makes the February numbers less impressive. January retail sales were revised to 4.9% month-on-month gains, up from the 3.8% originally reported. Retail sales minus vehicles were revised to 4.4% gains, up from 3.3% originally reported. Retail sales minus vehicles and gas rose to 5.2% gains in January, up from the 3.8% gains originally reported.

Will Russia default on its debt? That was an unthinkable possibility 30 days ago, due to Russia’s nearly $650 billion in gold and foreign currency reserves, and the millions of dollars per day coming in via energy sales. But that all changed when Russian President Putin gave the orders for his military to invade Ukraine. Suddenly the bulk of those assets were locked up – the majority of them were held overseas. Russia is due to pay $117 million in interest payments today on two dollar-denominated bonds that it sold nine years ago. Russia threatened to make the payments in Rubles. In fact, it says that it has made the payment, and it is waiting for Washington to clarify that a settlement is possible. The market is largely skeptical that Russia will make the payments, but a 30-day grace period means that we may not know until April 15^th. Another $615 million in payments on other bonds are due through the remainder of the month. Russia has an estimated $1.2 trillion in Ruble debt coming due this year, with another $650 billion in dollar-denominated debt.

Food shortages are one of the primary global concerns with the Ukrainian war, especially if Ukraine is unable to harvest a crop this year. Matt Ammerman is StoneX’s Vice President for Eastern Europe/Black Sea Region. Matt provides the following assessment. “Yes, problems will remain with the plantings. They have a very similar growing cycle to that of the U.S., and thus plantings should be starting in the South here in the coming weeks, with the peak plantings in April and early May. In principle, farmers would be getting the appropriate inputs in preparation, but right now that clearly is a bit tough. Fertilizer is hard to come by, (last fall applications for winter grains and spring grains were very minimal due to the supply issues), fuel is stolen by the Russians and/or given to the Ukraine military, and most men are serving their country. It was noted last week that farm workers had a waiver in their service duty, but I think you can assume the normal work force that is required is not there. I had a discussion just yesterday with a cash broker that talked to several farmers in Northern/Eastern Ukraine, and they confirmed that Russian forces destroyed tractors, harvesters, and silos that were full of grain. Insurance is not a common practice, so I think a farmer like this has been simply wiped out in full. Anybody asset rich is now nearly dirt poor. My guess is post war; the corporate farms will simply get that much bigger.”

“The silver lining is farmers, and especially Ukraine farmers, always remain optimistic – it’s hard to believe the headlines that come sometimes due to this. Remember the locals right now lean optimistic about the crop getting planted, with some seeing a -40% decline in plantings, but like normal its always the locals that hang on to the potential and yet are the last ones to realize the truth. Sadly, when you actually consider the details behind building infrastructure and financing back, its rather a daunting process. Ukraine and Russia both are rated junk via their bonds. How long before roads and bridges are built back to allow for proper transport? How long to clear the fields of mines, warfare debris? Get proper tractors and equipment back? All while the rest of the world still deals with COVID back orders. Sadly, from an efficiency perspective, the region has been set back greatly. What has taken them nearly 2 decades to build, has been wiped out in days. It will take Ukraine at least 5+ years to build back, where as Russia prob has a few decades now to build back.”

“Locals expect a 40% decrease in acreage, but it’s a wild guess IMO. Ukraine’s government said it will help support spring plantings, but the details are far from clear. If we get to the end of the month and the war is still there, we can probably assume a 50-60% decrease. If the war is still there mid-April, you can assume very minimal plantings. The wheat looks OK in Ukraine and Russia, but here too, how much will be harvested in Ukraine is the question, who will harvest it? Russian crops look just fine, but who will be able to buy them? The key corn production areas remain in the Central / Northeastern areas. It would be easier to assume more plantings to occur if key production areas were more in the West.”

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.