Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 23

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 23 Mar 2026, 13:40

March 23 – Stock futures surged and crude oil prices plummeted earlier this morning after President Trump posted on social media that talks with Iran have been very good over the past two days, and that he had therefore ordered U.S. forces to limit strikes on Iran over the next five days. Then a quick partial reversal was noted after Iran posted that no such talks occurred. Welcome to the “fog of war” when both sides utilize the media to position versus the other side, and there’s usually a healthy mixture of truth and fiction in reports released by both sides seeking to impact the outcome in one’s favor. The VIX plummeted from a high near 31 early this morning to a low near 20, before settling near 25 at this hour as stock futures posted a large swing and increased volatility. The dollar index is trading near 99.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38% after falling from an eight-month high above 4.44% this morning to a brief low near 4.30%. Yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.89%, after hitting a nine-month high near 4.02% earlier this morning that plummeted briefly to a low near 3.80%. WTI crude oil is trading near $91, within a $17 range that saw prices fall briefly as low as $84.37 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets followed crude oil on the fast-paced ride, but they are currently mixed to modestly lower.

President Trump posted this morning that the U.S. and Iran had seen two days of “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” As a result, he stated that he had ordered the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of ongoing talks. Iran media then released a statement that there had not been direct or indirect contact with “President Trump” (that would never happen anyway), and that President Trump is trying to “buy time” in the war. It went on to say that Trump withdrew from power plant strikes after Iran’s “firm warning” that it would hit Asian power facilities.

Welcome to the “fog of war” when both sides use the available media seeking to impact the final result. All parties involved in any war are operating on two fronts – the battleground front, as well as the public opinion front. There’s likely a mixture of truth and positioning to be found in most public comments made by officials. The challenge is to test what is said with what is observed. The regime in Iran knows that it is overpowered militarily, but it still hangs onto its ability to create fear, while outlasting the American public’s tolerance of war. It must sustain its power base in the event that it is able to survive so that it will still have an ability to carry out its objectives stealthily after this war is over. On the other hand, President Trump is aware of the public’s distaste for war and inflated prices, and its potential impact on the midterm elections. He wants to end it sooner rather than later, but he also doesn’t want his legacy to be that he failed to finish the job, leaving enough behind that Iran builds and even stronger threat to the United States for the future. As such, everything stated by both sides must be tested by the events that actually occur. President Trump reportedly told Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo this morning that we could see a deal with Iran as soon as five days or less, and that the latest talks occurred last night. It would be foolish to set the expectations of five days if something significant isn’t happening, but again, we’ll know more in five days.

What we do know is that this morning’s developments open the door to the possibility that we will soon have more certainty in the Middle East. Energy and fertilizer prices would not be expected to immediately return to prewar levels – there’s been too much infrastructure damage occur to have that happen. But we would expect to see volatility ease from current levels, with reduced upside risk from the unknown. It would take some weeks for wells to be restarted, and of course some infrastructure will need to be rebuilt. A worst case scenario would suggest that some infrastructure could take two to three years to rebuild, although we’d likely see alternative production seek to fill the gap in the mean time if that were the case. The bottom line is that the war will likely have a long tail, albeit a likely less volatile one. Nonetheless, energy and fertilizer supplies will likely be negatively impacted for a while.

We should see the EPA’s final RVO requirements for 2026 & 2027 biofuel by Friday’s “Celebration of Ag” event at the White House. Probably one of the bigger risks would be if the RVO were trimmed for this year, since a quarter of the year is already past, due to energy inflation worries ahead of the midterm elections. That’s not a prediction, but a statement of risk. A trade deal with China looks to be delayed until the Iran war is “over.” Meanwhile, China will increase its weekly wheat auction allotments to 800,000 metric tons, since demand from both mills and the feed industry is so strong. Market rumors suggest that it may soon start auctioning off older supplies of rice as well. This is China’s way of managing rising corn prices. China came into this year with an estimated 40 mmt of older wheat and 50 mmt of older rice in its reserves that needed to be rotated out. That doesn’t mean that China might not offer to buy corn in a trade deal, but it does mean that China’s not in a position where it needs to do so at this time.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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