Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 24 Mar 2026, 13:25

Today's Perspective Video: Is the End Close? Sorting Through Conflicting Reports

March 24 – Volatility remains the name of the game as Wall Street attempts to make sense out of the “fog of war” of conflicting headlines emerging from the Iran war. Stock futures are pointing lower this morning amid the uncertainty as inflation risks linger due to the war. The VIX is trading near 27, reflecting elevated concerns on Wall Street, while the dollar index is trading near 99.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.40% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.91%. Crude oil prices are trading near $92 per barrel. Grain prices traded modestly higher overnight, following the crude oil market, while the soybean complex reversed Monday’s action to push lower.

Iran sent waves of missiles into Israel today, providing a reminder that the war continues unabated in the Middle East despite talk of productive negotiations. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard remains emphatic that no negotiations are taking place with the United States. That may or may not be true. As I said yesterday, one has to take everything that one hears in war with a grain of salt. It’s possible that President Trump’s statements were meant to direct the media and public’s attention in one place while he prepares to strike in another place, so to speak. It wouldn’t be the first time that he’s done so. At the same time, it’s possible that negotiations are occurring, but with a faction other than the Revolutionary Guard. That scenario is entirely possible, but here again, I would expect any group other than the Revolutionary Guard to deny that such negotiations are taking place until they are complete, for their own safety, fearing retaliation from the Guard. But even if negotiations with the Revolutionary Guard are taking place, I would expect them to deny it. Their survival and future power requires that the people whom they hope will follow them after this war believe that any end to the war was on their terms dictated by the Guard. Negotiations could be seen as a sign of weakness that they would not want to display to their followers.

One thing that we do know though is that President Trump set the expectations for something to move the needle in the days ahead – perhaps this week. That has the markets eagerly waiting for whatever that might be, hoping that it will be a move toward peace. Such a move would not immediately restore the flow of energy and fertilizer products through the Strait of Hormuz or restore the production and supply of such. But it would begin to restore some sense of certainty, and that is what the market is most craving currently.

Treasury yields continue to trend higher, albeit with significant swings from day to day. Nonetheless, yields on 10-year Treasuries hit fresh eight-month highs this week, while yields on 2-year Treasuries hit fresh nine-month highs. The common thinking is that the Treasury market reflects expectations for greater inflation pressures in the months ahead due to rising energy and fertilizer prices, and there is some truth to that. But they also continue to reflect rising fiscal debt by the U.S. government. This year’s budget deficit – expenses over revenue – is expected to be around $2 trillion. That will need to be financed by newly issued debt certificates placed on the market. That’s on top of roughly $10 trillion in maturing debt certificates that will need to be refinanced over the next 12 months. Increasing the supply of anything relative to demand decreases that asset’s value. Decreasing the value of debt certificates by design increases their yields, seeking to increase demand for the assets.

Crude oil prices remain quite volatile as the market seeks to manage changing day-to-day expectations about how long the Strait of Hormuz will be closed. Crude oil, product and liquified natural gas shipments through the Strait are essentially at a halt now, outside of Iraq’s own shipments. Iran hopes to be able to develop a protection racket whereby countries pay it handsomely for the promise that its shipments will be able to pass through the Strait unharmed. The required payments are said to be as high as $2 million per vessel, but we really don’t know, as they are assessed very privately on a vessel-by-vessel basis. Surrounding Arab producers see these charges as totally unacceptable – seeing it as a sovereignty issue, and a weaponization of an essential international trade route.

A couple of India cargoes were seen passing through the Strait, along with a few Chinese shipments. Otherwise, hundreds of ships remain locked in place, afraid to pass through the Strait, and essentially also unavailable for global use for transport elsewhere in the world. Thus far the fuel shortage hasn’t hit the United States, where we are essentially energy independent, although we still export light crude while importing heavy crude that many of our refineries were designed to process. U.S. prices nonetheless are elevated due to the fact that we are still part of the world market. Roughly 20 million barrels per day flowed through the Strait prior to the war. Iran continues with its shipments, while Saudi Arabia is moving close to 6 mbpd. In the end, we’re still looking at a global shortfall of 12 – 13 mbpd, which is being felt globally, but most intensely in the Asian market.

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.