Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 30

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 30 Mar 2026, 13:11

March 30 – Stock futures came under pressure early overnight, before rallying back to trade in the green this morning. Initial selling came on concerns that the war is spreading in the Middle East, but the drop invited value buyers to take advantage of the price break. The VIX is trading near 30 this morning, reflecting elevated fear levels on Wall Street, while the dollar index trades near 100.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.36%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.86%. Crude oil prices are trading near $101 per barrel this morning, while Brent is trading near $114. Soybean and soybean oil prices are higher on Friday’s supportive biofuel guidelines that were released, while corn and wheat prices come under pressure, led by Kansas City wheat on increased rain forecasts for dry areas of the Plains.

Waves of missiles continue to come Israel’s way from Iran, but the weekend headline story was about missiles coming toward Israel from Yemen, fired by Iran connected Houthis. Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, has been engaged in this battle from the start, which has had Israel targeting sites within Lebanon to strike at Hezbollah strategic targets. However, this is the first time that the Houthis have become engaged in this war. The Houthis created havoc in the Red Sea, causing expensive reroutes of shipping during the Israeli war in the Gaza Strip. That activity decreased dramatically when the United States started targeting the Houthis. The U.S. backed off when the Houthis quit targeting ships in the Red Sea. The fear is that Houthi involvement in the Iran war will result in a resurgence of attacks on Red Sea shipping, further cutting off trade passing through the region of both energy and other consumer products.

The United States continues to position more ground troops in the Middle East. It’s unclear yet whether these troops are being positioned for an invasion of Iran, or for merely using the threat of an invasion to provide leverage in negotiations with Iran. President Trump continues to talk well of the talks that Iran continues to deny exist, which again represents positioning by both sides. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. President Trump also continues to set expectations that the war will be settled sooner rather than later. Trump appears to be ratcheting up pressure on Iran to get a peace deal sooner rather than later, but he’s also negotiating with a country known to promote suicide killings where they believe that they will be well rewarded for dying for the cause. It’s difficult to get a deal when the opponent believes they will be rewarded for dying for the cause.

The global increase in fuel prices emerging from the Iran war increases demand for biofuels. Argentina will allow ethanol blends up to 15% to ease high fuel prices, while also allowing biodiesel blends up to 20%. Indonesia indicates that it will proceed with its mandate to push biodiesel blending to 50% this year, utilizing its supplies of palm oil to do so. This comes on top of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s release of its final biofuel guidelines for 2026 and 2027 on Friday, which contained strong blending mandates as well. The EPA’s announcement finally provided clarity for the U.S. industry that it’s been lacking for much of the past couple of years. The final guidelines set the 2026 renewable diesel blending requirement at 8.86 billion RINs, with the 2027 mandate at 8.95 billion, including a 70% reallocation of previously granted small refinery exemptions. That translates into about 5.4 billion gallons of fuel production. Add in the reallocation of the SREs, and it rises to about 5.53 billion gallons, up from 3.35 billion in 2025. For 2027, we get a base RVO requirement of 5.7 billion gallons, which rises to about 5.86 billion gallons when the reallocated SREs are added back in. Imported feedstock get a full RIN of credit through 2027, but the EPA stated that it intends to go to a 100% credit in 2028. It will now immediately need to start work on the 2028 and 2029 RVO’s to meet its statutory requirement for its initial release at the end of this year.

The United Nations warns that we could face global food shortages as early as this summer as a product of Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large portion of the world’s supply of energy and fertilizer products flow. That is a very real problem, but predicting mass global food shortages by this summer is a bit dramatic. Will tighter fertilizer supplies result in lower global production? Yes, that will likely happen, leading to tighter world supplies of food-based commodities. The poorest countries will suffer the most. But it’s important to understand that we still see global surpluses of most food-based commodities to ease the shortfall this year. Nonetheless, the headline of food shortages is increasingly common on Wall Street, gaining fund manager buy in, which impacts money flow. As such, it suggests that we could see more money flowing into the food-based commodities as long as the war continues to escalate in the Middle East. Near-term, those markets are focused on tomorrow’s USDA quarterly grain stocks report – known for its surprises – and its annual planting intentions survey results that will be released at Noon Eastern Time.

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.