USDA Report Estimates - June 2026
USDA Grain S&D Report - Trade Estimates for the monthly publication
Matt Zeller
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 9
By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
Perspective: Morning Commentary
March 9 – Dow Jones futures are indicating a fairly flat opening this morning after two straight losing sessions; the trade continues to be worried about the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates faster and longer than previously thought, and Fed Chair Powell did little to assuage those fears this week by essentially claiming that all options are on the table going forward. Over 80% of analysts are now expecting a full 50-basis-point hike from the Fed later this month, though weekly unemployment numbers released this morning did show a potential softening of the labor market, and the bigger indicator arrives tomorrow in the form of February nonfarm payrolls.
Initial U.S. jobless claims came in at 211,000 for the week ending March 4, above 190k in the week prior and above the average 195k trade estimate, and the highest level since December. Continuing claims rose to 1.718 million, up from 1.649 mln the week prior and the average trade expectation for 1.660 mln – that’s the highest number in over year, when unemployment levels were still on the come-down post-COVID. Today’s numbers do at least suggest some softening in what has been a resilient and tight labor market, and the trade will be anxious to see if a trend gets started on that front when payroll numbers for February are released tomorrow morning. Analysts are expecting that number to settle back in after a February surprise, estimating unemployment steady as well.
The U.S. dollar is taking some profits this morning against a basket of major currencies, after the index hit its highest level in more than three months yesterday; the greenback remains underpinned by the potential of the U.S. Fed to raise interest rates longer than most. The Chinese yuan fell against the USD after lower-than-expected inflation number there, while Australian officials indicated that their central bank was getting closer to pausing rate hikes, and the Bank of Canada left their own overnight interest rate on hold yesterday as well.
The charts below are snipped from our interactive market intelligence site (link included below as well) and show month-by-month USDA report changes in Argentine corn and soybean production. The USDA had the ARG corn crop at 55 MMT as recently as December but increasingly large cuts in the last three months has that number down to 40 MMT – that was followed yesterday by the Rosario Exchange coming in at just 35 MMT. The USDA had ARG soybeans initially at 51 MMT but an 8 MMT cut this month leaves it at 33 MMT – and that was followed by the Rosario Exchange pegging soy output at just 27 MMT. It would appear to be an historic result in Argentina this year with that soybean figure at its lowest since the turn of the century. Meanwhile, Brazil will attempt to make up for the shortfall with record harvests on that end, as private and government estimates oscillate a bit but are generally steady at around 125 MMT for corn and 150+ MMT for soybeans – generally in line with the USDA as well.
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