Perspective: Morning Commentary for May 14

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 14 May 2026, 13:29

May 14 – President Trump and President Xi embraced their relationship of respect as they met today. China rolled out the red carpet for President Trump, with a ceremony welcoming Trump to the Great Hall of the People amid great fanfare. President Xi obviously wanted to present China as an equal to the United States, but he did so in a way to shed honor on President Trump as well. The ceremonial welcome was built on a foundation of relational respect that the two developed for one another starting with Trump’s first term in office. They are both strong men with strong values that have little in common with one another, but they each respect the other’s strength and position, and they have built a relationship on that foundation.

That is why President Trump told his trade team to talk to their counterparts in China literally every day during Trump 1.0, and I presume the same is true in 2.0 as well. Formal trade talks move more efficiently when the parties involved already have a relationship. There’s a respect for the differences, even as both stand firmly on their foundational values. President Xi requested that the two countries avoid the “Thucydides Trap” that refers to how tensions between countries escalate into war when they don’t talk. Xi stated to Trump that “’Making America Great Again’ and achieving the great ‘Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation’ can go hand in hand.” President Trump stated that the U.S. relationship with China is key to the world order.

Tech stocks rallied to fresh record highs overnight on hints that the door may be opening for selling advanced chips to China. President Trump reportedly cleared the way for 10 Chinese firms to purchase Nvidia’s second most powerful AI chip, the H200. The VIX continues to trade near 18 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 98.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.44% as they pull back from yesterday’s test of 4.5%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.96%, after failing to hold a probe above 4% yesterday. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $101 per barrel this morning, while Brent trades near $105. Big losses for soybean prices are weighing on corn and wheat as well in the absence of any confirmed trade deal. China suddenly approved export licenses for hundreds of U.S. beef facilities overnight, before reversing that action hours later as negotiations continue. Those licenses expired early in 2025 before the tariff war began.

Few details of a trade agreement are available yet at this hour, suggesting that negotiations were not as far along as we had hoped prior to Trump’s arrival in Beijing, although we still anticipate hearing more details as we go through the day today. Keep in mind that the October agreement was a mere handshake, with the details to be worked out the following week. Those details were never worked out to the point of a final printed document, but yet the framework was enacted by both sides. As such, I would be disappointed if a framework is not announced before Air Force One lifts off from Beijing. The two sides both want an agreement – both need an agreement – and therefore I expect there to be an agreement. I still anticipate that such an agreement will include corn, and perhaps dried distillers grains, milling wheat, grain sorghum, and perhaps products from the meat sector.

Soybean prices plummeted this morning when a comment emerged from China that Chinese soybean purchases were “all taken care of” suggesting that they had completed purchase of the agreed to 12 million metric tons for this year, and that they had no interest of buying more, which reflects what we expected. China is reportedly still verbally committed to purchasing an additional 25 mmt for the next “season,” but it really doesn’t have the room for that big of a purchase in its reserve, and we won’t have that many soybeans to sell amid the current domestic biofuel program. Yet, USDA’s announcement this morning that “Unknown Destinations” bought 9.3 million bushels of U.S. soybeans overnight will still trigger speculation. The purchase was nearly evenly split between current year and next year delivery. It wouldn’t surprise me if China started purchases of new-crop soybeans as part of fulfilling their previous commitment for the coming year as a good faith move during the Beijing summit, but the old crop purchases would surprise me if they were to China, since it has already fulfilled its current year commitment.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill on Wednesday to allow year around sale of E-15 blend gasoline – ethanol blended up to 15% by volume into gasoline. The bill now goes to the Senate for a vote. President Trump previously promised to sign the bill if it reached his desk. E-10 sales are currently mandated. This allows stations to sell E-15 year-around, which is expected to result in more infrastructure development to facilitate sales if the Senate passes it. Brazil is already mandating E-30, while considering moving to E-32. Ethanol futures are currently trading near $1.60 per gallon under RBOB gas futures, so higher blends offer a cheaper alternative to consumers. However, Senate insiders suggest that the bill has major obstacles in the upper chamber.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 26

June 26 - Stocks trended firmer throughout the morning, moving into positive territory by mid-morning. That allowed the VIX to slip back to trade near 19 by midday, while the dollar index traded near 101.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.09%. WTI crude oil is trading near $69, while Brent trades near $72 per barrel, despite increased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Wheat prices remain under pressure, led by double-digit losses in Kansas City, while corn and soybean prices are slowly attempting to crawl back into positive territory at midday, combined with some renewed buying in the edible oils for biofuel.

Arlan SudermanFri, 26 Jun 2026, 16:36

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 26

June 26 – Chip stocks weighed on stock futures overnight, contributing to general weakness across the board as Iran tries to take control of the Strait of Hormuz once again, testing the fragility of the ceasefire. The VIX elevated to trade near 21 this morning, while the dollar index slipped lower to trade near 101.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.40%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.10% as the yield curve steepens a bit this morning. WTI crude oil traded back below $70 per barrel this morning, as Brent traded near $73, while the grain and oilseed markets traded mostly weaker as well ahead of the weekend.

Arlan SudermanFri, 26 Jun 2026, 13:41

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Morning Grain Comments 6-26

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 26 Jun 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

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