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Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst
November 12 – Stock futures are pointing to a lower open as the tech sector drags again, with market cap giant Nvidia looking to extend its rapid decline down to a nearly year-and-a-half low in pre-market trading amid the resignation of CEO Jensen Huang. This comes ahead of the company’s third quarter earnings set to be released next Tuesday (11/17) that were already going to be closely scrutinized given increasing investor skepticism regarding the eye-popping costs of the ongoing AI buildout. The VIX is pushing higher to start the day, up close to 7% to hang near 18.7 at the time of writing. The dollar broke above the 103 level for the first time since April 2025 earlier in the session but now hangs near 102.9, only modestly in the green. Treasury yields are pushing higher again after yesterday’s market closure, with 2-year yields up another 7-basis points to trade at 4.797%, 10-year yields up 4-basis points to trade at 5.028%, and 30-year yields up 2-basis points to trade at 5.37%.
Crude oil is modestly higher amid a relatively quiet start to the session, with nearby WTI up slightly over 0.1% on the day to trade just above $86.50 while nearby Brent is up 0.8% on the day to trade near $93.50. President Trump this morning posted to social media that “We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed.” Coupled with the ongoing unwillingness of Iranian leadership to move from existing demands, the stalemate continues. Multiple new maritime incidents have been reported over the past 24 hours, including explosions involving two supertankers and another vessel reportedly struck by a projectile. The developments reinforce the growing disconnect between improving expectations for diplomacy and the reality that commercial traffic through the region remains under persistent threat, but the market has become increasingly numb to such headlines, preferring to focus on optimism for a settlement being reached soon. Meanwhile, the ags are mostly lower to start the day.
U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met with Russian President Putin today as the push for diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine continues after this week’s resumption of trilateral talks in the U.A.E. The fact that Witkoff and Kushner went directly from Abu Dhabi to Moscow suggests Washington believes there is still enough overlap in positions to keep negotiating, but there is currently no evidence of a breakthrough on the major issues that matter most: territory, security guarantees, and the future European security architecture. The pair are expected to travel from Moscow to Dublin next in order to meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, continuing negotiations.
Of the headlines coming out of today’s talks thus far, the one that stands out to me is Putin’s remark that “for Russia, there is only one demarcation line with Ukraine – state border.” The ultimate question is what he means by "state border," especially after yesterday's comments from Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky suggesting Moscow continues to insist on control of the portions of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia that Russian forces do not currently occupy. If that is indeed the position Putin was reiterating, it remains difficult to envision meaningful progress toward a broader settlement. It’s also worth noting that Putin expressed positivity regarding the recent ceasefire in the battered southern frontline city of Oleshky last month, proposing a similar agreement for the eastern frontline city of Kostiantynivka. If Russian forces are actively trying to improve their position around the approaches to Kostiantynivka, Ukraine would be wary of anything that slows Ukrainian defensive operations while allowing Russian forces to prepare for future assaults. It’s hard for me to think this city was chosen randomly, same as Oleshky. Both sit near active frontlines in regions Russia claims as its own despite not exercising full control over the territory. As a result, the proposal may carry significance beyond its humanitarian component. It will be particularly interesting to hear what emerges from Witkoff and Kushner's discussions with Zelenskyy, as well as the European response after being largely excluded from the negotiating table thus far.
First-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 200k in the week ending November 7, above the average analyst estimate of 195k and marking a four-week high. The week prior was also revised higher to 191k from the 189k previously reported. That pushed the four-week moving average of jobless claims to 195.25k, still representing the lowest level seen since 1969, highlighting the unexpected resilience of the U.S. labor market. Meanwhile, continuing claims fell sharply to 1.697M, well below the average estimate of a more modest decline to 1.710M and among the lowest levels seen in roughly three-and-a-half years. While the initial claims figure rising more than expected may soften some of the most hawkish sentiments, the overall resilience of the labor market continues to act as a permission signal for the Fed to continue hiking rates. Per CME’s FedWatch, the market sees the odds of a 25-basis point hike at next month’s meeting above 87%, with the remaining ~13% pointing to a 50-basis point hike. Looking ahead to 2027, the market sees additional 25-basis point hikes coming at both the January and March meetings, keeping the conversation of higher for longer rates front and center for the market in the year ahead.
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The WASDE cut to the U.S. corn yield sparked a grain rally, yet larger crops in Argentina and Brazil absorbed most of the loss. The full report also lifted global corn stocks and trimmed EU import estimates that the market treated with doubt.
November 12 – Stock futures are pointing to a lower open as the tech sector drags again, with market cap giant Nvidia looking to extend its rapid decline down to a nearly year-and-a-half low in pre-market trading amid the resignation of CEO Jensen Huang. This comes ahead of the company’s third quarter earnings set to be released next Tuesday (11/17) that were already going to be closely scrutinized given increasing investor skepticism regarding the eye-popping costs of the ongoing AI buildout. The VIX is pushing higher to start the day, up close to 7% to hang near 18.7 at the time of writing. The dollar broke above the 103 level for the first time since April 2025 earlier in the session but now hangs near 102.9, only modestly in the green. Treasury yields are pushing higher again after yesterday’s market closure, with 2-year yields up another 7-basis points to trade at 4.797%, 10-year yields up 4-basis points to trade at 5.028%, and 30-year yields up 2-basis points to trade at 5.37%.
El Niño weather risk is starting to move corn and soybean trade, shifting attention from the size of the U.S. harvest to global supply. Strong Brazilian crops and export demand decide how comfortable that supply looks.
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