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Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 1

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

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September 1 – Stock futures came under pressure overnight, as war risks inch higher, pushing crude oil prices higher, and as Treasury yields rise. The VIX is trading near 16 this morning, although it has spent much of the past four weeks between 14 and 16, reflecting relative calm on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading near 99.6, having essentially recovered from the mid-August break. WTI crude oil is trading near $88 this morning, while Brent trades near $93 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed to higher. Corn, soybean, and both winter wheat markets posted new highs for the move overnight, before pulling back from those highs during the early morning hours as we start a new month of trading. Corn prices slipped modestly into the red, while soybean prices maintained double digit gains on the strength of soybean oil following a big biofuel announcement on Monday.

Two more supertankers were hit by Iranian related forces according to industry reports, pushing crude oil prices higher following a trade of strikes between Iran and the United States to start the week. Iran insists that there will not be peace until the United States abides by the now defunct Memorandum of Understanding reached in June, but that MOU also required that Iran allow safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which has not been the case. In fact, the U.S. strike on Iran to start the week was to take out missile launchers believed to be intended for putting more mines in the Strait. The United States otherwise continues to tighten the economic grip on Iran to cut off its revenue sources. The blockade of its ports is one thing, but the United States is trying to cut off other revenue streams as well. The United Arab Emirates cutting off financial ties with Iran was a big step in that direction, but China’s business relationship with Iran is another big piece of that puzzle not yet fully dealt with.

Look for President Trump to walk that line carefully over the next several weeks ahead of President Xi’s visit to the United States to meet with Trump on September 24, but Xi is also walking that line carefully as well. It will mostly likely be a major negotiating point in the meantime, with possibly more significant steps taken after that date with implications for the commodities. For Iran’s part, it sees its chances at influencing the midterm elections as its best option, with the Revolutionary Guard hoping that Trump will lose Congress to the opposition party, and that it will somehow be able to force Trump to withdraw troops from the region, allowing it to declare victory over the United States. As such, Iran wants to hit enough ships to keep oil from flowing to keep energy prices high through the midterm elections, while claiming to be the innocent victim of the United States “violating” the MOU.

Wheat prices hit new three-and-a-half-year highs overnight on unconfirmed (but not surprising) reports that Russia rejected Turkey’s bid for a moratorium on attacks in the Black Sea. Russia renewed its attacks on Ukraine infrastructure overnight, including its ports and a border crossing point with Romania that Ukraine can use for exporting grain. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to inflict significant damage on Russian energy infrastructure deep within Russia, while also periodically hitting grain ships tied to Russian exports in the Black Sea. Ukraine also reportedly hit a Russian port on the Baltic Sea at Ust-Luga, creating a fire at the port. Ust-Luga is a major export outlet in northwest Russia. Russia is trying to rail grain to its Baltic ports for export, after Ukraine has essentially shut off its ability to export via the Black Sea. Combined, the two countries were expected to account for 29% of the world’s wheat exports this year, in addition to notable quantities of corn, edible oils, etc. Those shipments were cut by more than half in August, with volumes continuing to decline.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency granted a record 1.76 billion gallons of waived biofuel blending obligations for 2025 in reviewing 34 small refinery exemption requests for last year. However, it also announced plans for a supplemental rulemaking by late October to reallocate 100 percent of the extra volumes of the RINS (renewable identification numbers) that would be released into the 2026 and 2027 years. Assuming that the EPA follows through with that commitment through the required comment period, it would make the above SRE exemptions essentially a non-event in regard to demand for feedstock over the long haul. This is currently seen as bullish for demand for feedstock used to produce biomass diesel, with little overall impact on ethanol.

USDA reported modest declines to both corn and soybean condition ratings on Monday afternoon. For corn, the decline was smaller than normally seen during the week, leading my yield model to bump slightly higher this week to 181.2 bushels per acre. The opposite was true for soybeans, which saw my yield model slip slightly to 53.1 bpa. The StoneX customer survey had to be delayed this year until after industry pre-report estimates are due ahead of USDA’s WASDE report, so I will be submitting the above yields in my pre-report estimates that you see published. However, those will then be replaced by our official survey results when they are released on September 8.  

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 1

September 1 – Stock futures came under pressure overnight, as war risks inch higher, pushing crude oil prices higher, and as Treasury yields rise. The VIX is trading near 16 this morning, although it has spent much of the past four weeks between 14 and 16, reflecting relative calm on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading near 99.6, having essentially recovered from the mid-August break. WTI crude oil is trading near $88 this morning, while Brent trades near $93 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed to higher. Corn, soybean, and both winter wheat markets posted new highs for the move overnight, before pulling back from those highs during the early morning hours as we start a new month of trading. Corn prices slipped modestly into the red, while soybean prices maintained double digit gains on the strength of soybean oil following a big biofuel announcement on Monday.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 31

August 31 – Geopolitics are front and center to kick off trade on Monday after a weekend of escalations in both the Middle East and Black Sea region, with stock futures pointing to a quietly lower open and the VIX rising close to 7% on the day, albeit still relatively low historically as it hovers above the 15.4 mark. The dollar is taking back some of Friday’s sharp gains as it trades slightly lower to start the day, hovering around 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries look to hold some focus this week as well, with long-term yields moving higher overnight, as 30-year yields push back up to 5.25% and 10-year yields approach 4.75%, though short-term yields are more muted, with 2-years trading below 4.34%. Crude oil is starting the week off on a strong note after renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend, with nearby WTI and Brent both up 2.5% this morning to trade near $85.50 and $90.30, respectively. The ags are mostly lower to start the day despite the ongoing escalations between Russia and Ukraine, with a headline about Turkey reportedly pushing for a Black Sea shipping deal likely triggering some profit taking by funds holding hefty longs.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 28

August 28 – Stocks have fallen into the red at midday, with the Nasdaq (-0.7%) leading the way down, followed by the S&P 500 (-0.3%), then the Dow Jones (-0.1%). The VIX has risen slightly through the session but remains low from a historical context, currently hovering just below the 14.7 level. The dollar has officially erased last week’s sharp losses as it surges higher following largely hawkish comments from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that we’ll outline in more depth below. Treasuries are seeing a substantial flattening of the yield curve after his comments, with 2-year yields screaming higher, currently nearing their July highs as they trade back above 4.35%, while 10-year yields near 4.73%, but 30-year yields see only a modest increase to trade just below 5.21%. Crude oil has bounced from the morning lows to trade only narrowly in the red at the time of writing, with nearby WTI trading at $83.30 and nearby Brent trading at $88.00.

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