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Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 24

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

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September 24 – Angst in the bond market and increasing expectations of higher for longer interest rates has stock futures pointing to a lower open today, with trade likely to be volatile around headlines from today’s Trump/Xi meeting. Treasury yields yesterday rose to fresh multi-year highs across the curve, with the biggest moves seen in the long end. Most notably, 30-year yields made a new high not seen since 2004, 10-year yields made highs not seen since 2007, and 2-year yields made new highs not seen since early 2024. They do look to be coming off of these highs to start the day, with 2-year yields back down to 4.85%, 10-year yields at 5.10%, and 30-year yields at 5.40% at the time of writing. The VIX is pushing to its highest level of the week back above 16, but it’s worth noting this remains on the low-end of 2026’s trade. The dollar is continuing its surge higher as well amid the aforementioned rising rate expectations, posting another near two-month high above the 101.3 mark. Crude oil is bouncing from its recent bottom but remains notably lower than trade over the last two weeks, with nearby WTI trading at $93.70 and nearby Brent trading at $99.80 at the time of writing. The ags are largely mixed, with soybeans showing the most strength at the break with all eyes on today’s Trump/Xi meeting, with major implications for the sector.

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in the U.S. to quite a ceremony yesterday evening, with President Trump and first lady Melania traveling to nearby Joint Base Andrews to take part in the welcoming on the red carpet, a break from tradition that appears to emphasize the push for elevating the personal relationship between the two leaders. This will be followed up with more ceremony and celebration this morning, with the actual closed-door meetings not expected to begin until roughly 11:30 AM Eastern Time. The clear push for unmistakably respectful optics is helping set a positive tone prior to the actual negotiations, with Xi following suit upon arrival, stating: “national rejuvenation of China and making America great again can fully proceed in parallel, reinforce each other, and benefit the world.” Both leaders also expressed their expectations for positive results from the meeting, but markets will ultimately be focused on concrete results.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday announced a two-month extension of the “Busan Agreement” trade truce agreed to last fall, now set to expire on January 10 instead of November 10, giving the two sides a longer runway to reach a larger agreement, but a shorter runway than previously suggested. That’s a meaningful de-escalation signal, but not yet a substantive new trade package, nor a long-term agreement. Grain markets will be looking for any sort of confirmation regarding the alleged $17B non-soy agricultural product purchase pledge, as well as confirmation of the 25 million metric ton per year soybean purchase agreement. China has made significant progress on the soybean side, but effectively nothing else on the ag commodities. Keep in mind that managed money is coming into this meeting with big speculative net length, meaning the headline risk may be to the downside if we don’t get any fresh announcements or confirmation from the Chinese side.

Delegates from both sides have emphasized the push for cooperation on AI safety and regulation and the need to maintain communication, presumably taking one major sticking point out of the mix, but it’s worth noting that Trump himself has been very vocal about not slowing AI development specifically due to the need to maintain competitiveness versus China. The other potential sticking point for the tech sector is China’s ongoing grip on rare-earth mineral supply chains—one area of previous agreement where China has complied enough to prevent the worst-case supply squeeze, but not enough to eliminate this as a potential roadblock entirely. The other potential roadblock to watch for following today’s meetings is the U.S. supply of arms to Taiwan. Neither side touched on the topic at yesterday's ceremony, but it is expected to be one of the most substantive issues discussed in today’s closed-door meetings. As we outlined yesterday, there is a path for both sides to declare victory to their own domestic bases following this meeting, which could allow for additional improvement in trade between the world’s two largest economies, but this could also prove to be a source of contention.

The U.S. labor market continues to impress, with weekly first time claims for unemployment benefits coming in below expectations yet again at 197k for the week ending September 19, a slight drop from the upwardly revised 198k in the week prior, below the average analyst estimate of a moderate rise to 201k and marking a two-month low. This pushes the four-week moving average of weekly jobless claims down to 202.25k, a six-week low. Furthermore, continuing claims point to an impressively resilient market, coming in at 1.719M versus estimates of a rise to 1.745M. The week prior was also revised notably lower to 1.717M from the previously reported 1.730M, representing the lowest level seen since the beginning of 2024. All in all, this was yet another impressive week of data from the U.S. labor market, though it is worth noting the potential for the market to interpret good news as bad news in this regard, as the strength helps clear the Fed’s path for higher rates ahead.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 24

September 24 – Angst in the bond market and increasing expectations of higher for longer interest rates has stock futures pointing to a lower open today, with trade likely to be volatile around headlines from today’s Trump/Xi meeting. Treasury yields yesterday rose to fresh multi-year highs across the curve, with the biggest moves seen in the long end. Most notably, 30-year yields made a new high not seen since 2004, 10-year yields made highs not seen since 2007, and 2-year yields made new highs not seen since early 2024. They do look to be coming off of these highs to start the day, with 2-year yields back down to 4.85%, 10-year yields at 5.10%, and 30-year yields at 5.40% at the time of writing. The VIX is pushing to its highest level of the week back above 16, but it’s worth noting this remains on the low-end of 2026’s trade. The dollar is continuing its surge higher as well amid the aforementioned rising rate expectations, posting another near two-month high above the 101.3 mark. Crude oil is bouncing from its recent bottom but remains notably lower than trade over the last two weeks, with nearby WTI trading at $93.70 and nearby Brent trading at $99.80 at the time of writing. The ags are largely mixed, with soybeans showing the most strength at the break with all eyes on today’s Trump/Xi meeting, with major implications for the sector.

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