Perspective: Morning Commentary March 2

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 02 Mar 2026, 14:38

March 2 – Volatility returned again overnight, following the joint Israeli – U.S. strike on Iran over the weekend, with stock futures turning notably lower, while energy prices surged on rising geopolitical risks. The VIX spiked above 25 overnight, before slipping closer to 23 at this hour as U.S. trade desks open. The dollar index resumed its safe-haven status overnight, rising to its highest level since late January to trade near 98.5 this morning. Treasuries traded a wide range overnight as investors couldn’t decide whether Treasuries were a safe haven or whether they should trade inflation risks. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are currently trading near 4.01%, after dipping below 3.93% at one point, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.44%, after trading as low as 3.365% at one point. Crude oil prices opened the overnight session at $75, but they are now trading closer to $72 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets initially traded notably higher, but they have now settled down to trade mixed.

A surprise attack on Iran by Israel and the United States on Saturday morning killed Iran’s supreme leader, along with many other high-level leaders all meeting to discuss the ongoing rising tensions. Israel continued to strike at Iran’s leadership, while the United States focused on taking out key military targets throughout Iran. Iran retaliated by striking Israel, as well as U.S. interest throughout the Middle East, while also striking some of its neighbors who it believed lent support to the United States. The Strait of Hormuz does not yet appear to be closed by Iran, but ships are collectively backing up on both sides of the narrow passage, either fearful of entering the Strait or unable to afford or acquire necessary insurance to pass through. Shipping data showed hundreds of tankers that carry oil and gas dropping anchor rather than pass through the Strait over the weekend. Roughly a fifth of the world’s water-borne crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz on a regular basis, along with a third of the world’s urea fertilizer, 20 – 25% of its anhydrous ammonia and most of the phosphate that we import passes through the Strait. Broadening the scope of the risk, over half of the world’s urea fertilizer is produced in that part of the world.

President Trump called on the Iranian people to overthrow their leaders, while also preparing Americans for the possibility that the conflict could go on for a matter of weeks, if not longer. Hezbollah joined in the fight once again by launching missiles into Israel today, while the Houthi’s have again reportedly restarted their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Many regional nations have shut down oil infrastructure due to Iranian strikes on such in the region. Major international airports remain closed due to the risk of flying in the region, with hundreds of thousands of Americans trapped in the region. In other words, this is a real human crisis, but it is also a major global economic disruption of undetermined duration, although market behavior suggests current thinking that its relatively short.

China finds itself in a tight spot this morning, needing to provide support for its Allie, but while also trying to avoid being drawn into the conflict militarily at a time when it has its own set of internal issues to deal with after China’s highest legislative branch threw its support behind President Xi by removing nine high ranking military officials last week – including five of the top six generals. The nine had previously been arrested on “corruption” charges, largely believed to reflect the perception of disloyalty to President Xi. The fact that the legislative group backed President Xi is a big win for Xi, giving him a bit more confidence that he will survive this challenge to his leadership, and putting him in a bit stronger position of negotiations as he prepares for President Trump’s visit to Beijing at the end of the month. Yet, Xi still needs a calmer world scene to focus on re-establishing his power within China, and he stands to lose a great deal if Iran’s leadership is replaced by a regime that is less friendly to China. Xi must walk a fine line here of protesting the fact that yet another of his allies has been attacked by the United States, while also moving forward toward some sense of an agreement to increase trade with President Trump when he visits Beijing on March 31. China’s economy needs access to the vast U.S. consumer market, foreign direct investment and the advanced chips that the U.S. offers, while President Trump needs increased trade ahead of the midterm elections. This still offers a window of opportunity for increased trade to unfold the remainder of the year.

The grain and oilseed sector surged along with energy prices overnight, but only soybean oil remains relatively near its session high, near 2-1/2-year highs. It’s a bit of a perfect storm for soybean oil, with rising crude oil prices increasing demand for biofuels, and with the EPA sending its final RVO biofuel regulations to the White House for final approval Wednesday night of last week, signaling that we should soon be in position to ramp up production of biomass diesel in the States. Perhaps the current spike in crude oil will give a little support to legislative efforts to get year-around E-15 ethanol blend sales approved as well. The next issue to watch will be inflation expectations. The strongest StoneX commodity sector correlating to inflation over the past 10 years was the grain and oilseed sector at 0.88, followed closely by the energy sector at 0.83.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

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Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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