Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
Today's Perspective Video: Government Reopening Coming
November 11 – Today marks Veteran’s Day in America – the day that we remember those who sacrificed so much so that we can enjoy the freedoms that take so for granted today. Remember to thank a veteran! The bond markets are closed today, along with the banks, in honor of Veteran’s Day, while the equity and commodity markets continue to trade. Otherwise, today is day #42 of the partial government shutdown, with the airlines asked to cancel 6% of the flights due to the absence of air traffic controllers seeking work elsewhere to pay their bills. Stock futures were generally mixed in relatively quiet trade overnight, although fresh concerns over the tech sector possibly being overvalued provided some headwinds. The VIX is trading near 18 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 99.3. The bond market is closed today. Crude oil prices are 1% higher this morning as traders balance oversupply worries with Russia sanctions risks. The grain and oilseed sector was mostly weaker in overnight trade as they began to position for Friday’s long awaited WASDE crop report.
A 60-40 vote in the Senate Monday moved the revised continuing resolution to the floor of the Senate for debate and discussion after a group of eight Democrats (including an Independent) crossed the line to join Republicans to end the filibuster that had prevented such over the previous six weeks. Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois – the Senate’s #2 Democrat – stated, “The government shutting down seemed to be an opportunity to lead us to better policy. It didn’t work.” He was part of the group that defied Chuck Schumer – the Senate’s #1 Democrat – to bring an end to the filibuster that had shut down the government on October 1st. This deal funds the government through January 30th, but it includes funding for the complete fiscal year through September 30 for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Food and Drug Administration, the Department of Veteran’s Affairs, military construction projects and Congressional operations. That means that these areas will not be shut down if we encounter the same type of filibuster on January 30 to shut down the government. As such, SNAP payments – food assistance programs – will continue to be processed. The bill also includes a one-year extension of the Farm Bill, and funding of USDA allows the Trump Administration to proceed with paying out farmer assistance payments estimated to be near $12 billion. The above CR is expected to be approved by the House of Representatives tomorrow – reopening the government.
China’s monthly CASDE report for November – its equivalent to our WASDE monthly crop report – provided no evidence to support the notion that there will be a substantial increase in state purchases to meet the 12 million metric ton commitment for calendar year 2025 as stated by the White House. The CASDE report maintains imports at 95.8 mmt for the 2025-26 marketing year, unchanged from its October estimate, and down from 109 mmt in the 2024-25 marketing year. The CASDE report does not estimate ending stocks in order to preserve the secrecy of reserve supplies. However, it does report changes in stocks at the end of each year. Stocks increased in each of the past three marketing years by totals of 3.54 mmt, 8.58 mmt, and 11.38 mmt. That brings total increases over the past three years to 23.5 mmt, or 863 million bushels, on top of what was previously in the reserves. USDA estimates China’s total reserves at the end of this past marketing year at 43.48 mmt, or 1.598 billion bushels. Domestic crush in China for the current year is estimated to be 94.2 mmt, or 3.461 billion bushels, down 4.7 mmt from the previous year. Private crushers are value buyers, and they’ve been buying primarily from South America because those supplies are cheaper, and even more so with the retaliatory tariffs in place. It’s believed that crushers have purchased roughly 40 mmt of soybeans from South American sources for the current marketing year already, but they still have zero financial incentive to increase purchases of U.S. soybeans. That would have to come from state buyers for China’s reserve, and there’s very little indication that these state buyers are engaged in a program to purchase 12 mmt ahead of the end of this year, let alone 25 mmt more for calendar year 2026. We hope that will be the case, but thus far we see little evidence of it as the clock continues to tick.
Beijing did implement more steps to limit the exports of components used to produce fentanyl in keeping with the trade agreement reached at the end of October, raising some optimism that it may slowly comply with the agreement. China will now require a permit to export 13 drug related precursor chemicals to Canada, Mexico, and the United States. China did so trying to open the way for President Trump to remove the final 10% fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods. It has suggested that removal of this 10% fentanyl tariff is essential before it removes the final 10% retaliatory tariff that keeps U.S. Ag commodities over-priced in the Chinese market. Unfortunately, time is running out for the removal of that 10% tariff to make much of a difference in the purchase of U.S. soybeans, with cheaper new crop Brazilian supplies already booked to start arriving at Chinese ports in February. The door hasn’t closed yet for U.S. soybeans, but we’re getting very close to that point. Yet, I expect USDA to maintain its 1.685-billion-bushel soybean export target on Friday. It wouldn’t look good to cut it immediately after reaching the agreement.
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Weather often dominates wheat headlines, but rising production costs are becoming just as important in shaping future supply. Across several major exporters, weaker farm economics are reducing planted area and increasing the risk of tighter global availability.
July 14 – Inflation is the focus again over the next couple of days, with critical data for June being released and crude oil prices rising to four-week highs once again. That led to mixed action overnight among the equities, even as fighting escalates in the Middle East. The VIX is trading near 17 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 100.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.58%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are near 4.20%, after setting a fresh 17-month high overnight. WTI crude oil is trading at a four-week high near $80, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector turned mostly weaker in the early morning hours.
July 13 – We’re back at war in the Persian Gulf, adding to problems in the Black Sea war; threatening global energy supplies this morning, with risks for food-based commodities as well. Key inflation data will be released over the next two mornings. The equities are mixed to firmer as a result, while the VIX remains relatively low near 16. The dollar index continues to chop around near 101.0 this morning. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.58%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23, reflecting a fresh 16-month high. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $74 this morning, while Brent trades near $78. Corn and soybean prices followed crude oil higher overnight, while wheat prices turned lower despite the fact that the Kerch Strait is still closed this morning.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
