Perspective: Morning Commentary September 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 15 Sep 2025, 13:42

September 15 – It’s the week that Wall Street has been anticipating. It’s Fed week – the week in which Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to grant its wish of an interest rate cut. As such, we saw stock futures generally firmer overnight near last week’s record highs on expectations that traders will finally get that long-anticipated next rate cut from the Fed. The VIX is hovering near 15 this morning, while the dollar index is trading near 97.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.04%, after bouncing off 4% last week, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.53%. Crude oil traded quietly higher overnight, while the grain and oilseed markets were mostly weaker following Friday’s surprise strength.

U.S. and China negotiators started the next round of negotiations yesterday in Madrid, with much of the focus reportedly on TikTok and Nvidia. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the talks yielded good progress yesterday on technical details, with the two sides close to reaching an agreement on TikTok. The talks are complicated by Chinese statements that its preliminary investigation found Nvidia in violation of China’s anti-competition laws. The talks continue today, with negotiators expected to remain in Madrid until mid-week. An imminent deadline for a divestment of Chinese owned TikTok likely created the impetus to move closer to an agreement on that, but agreements on other topics may be more difficult to reach. Yes, China’s economy is suffering from the current trade war, but it also recognizes that it may not need to give substantial ground if the U.S. Supreme Court rules against President Trump’s tariffs in November. This is the fourth round of negotiations between the two sides, and each round thus far has reached some type of incremental agreement – usually regarding temporary suspension of the highest levels of the tariffs, along with some agreement regarding China’s exports of rare earth minerals and magnets and U.S. exports of higher quality chips. The current suspension of the higher-level tariffs goes until November 10.

The Ag industry keeps scanning the headlines for fresh signs of progress on negotiating a trade deal that would see soybeans and other commodities moving to China, but none yet exist. The uncomfortable fact is that China has more than enough soybeans in its reserves to go through the next year without buying a single bushel from the United States as long as Brazil has a good growing season in the months ahead, and as long as China is comfortable chewing into those reserves. As such, China remains content to punish the U.S. Ag sector – one of Trump’s biggest political support blocks – as long as tensions remain between the two countries. On the U.S. side, President Trump would like to see a commodity deal, but a deal on rare earth minerals and magnets is far more critical to national security. The possibility of a commodity deal remains in place in these negotiations, which have largely remained behind closed doors. In fact, rumors again circulated overnight that a deal has been reached, although President Trump’s social media post suggests that any such deal regards TikTok, with no mention of commodities. I hope there is a deal on commodities, but I will remain a skeptic until I see large commitments from China. It’s very possible that we could see some type of incremental deal to purchase commodities in exchange for removal of the 20% fentanyl tariff, but I would be surprised to see China sign a blockbuster commodity deal prior to seeing the Supreme Court decision in November.

More than 25,000 different sanctions have been imposed on Russia by the United States, Europe and other allies in recent years. The bulk of those sanctions came following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but some of them go back to its annexation of Crimea in 2014. One of the biggest sanctions disconnected Russian banks from the global SWIFT payment system in 2022, followed by Washington’s warning to Chinese banks last year against actions that would support Russia’s war efforts. That makes Chinese banks afraid of accepting Russian funds. The sanctions are negatively impacting Russia’s economy, which is now believed to be in a recession, along with high inflation. Yet, Russian President Putin remains defiant. Reuters uncovered a growing barter trade program being pursued by Russia to sustain essential trade with other countries while circumventing sanctions. Thus far, Reuters has been able to track eight such barter transactions that exchanged goods and services with other countries, although that still is rather small for a $2.2 trillion economy. Something similar was tried in the 1990s, but it resulted in chaos in the Russian economy, with widespread fraud and profiteering.

Overnight rumors of a trade deal with China failed to convince grain and oilseed traders, with soybeans only modestly higher in early trade, while corn prices retraced a portion of Friday’s sizeable gains that triggered some increased grain flow. Next up for these markets are harvest reports, which should increase significantly over the next couple of weeks.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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