Perspective: Morning Commentary September 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 24 Sep 2025, 13:37

Today's Perspective Video: Corn Export Demand is on Fire

September 24 – Stock futures pushed modestly higher overnight, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell accomplished a fine balancing act in his comments on Tuesday, not aligning with either the doves or the hawks. Traders are also anticipating key data on durable goods orders, gross domestic product and inflation over the next two days. The VIX continues to trade near 16 this morning, while the dollar index is trading stronger near 97.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.13%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.58%. Crude oil prices are up another 1% this morning as they approach the top of their recent trading range, while the grain and oilseed markets posted modest gains ahead of this morning’s market pause.

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee continue to speak different lines, while voting in unison – except for the latest appointee to the policy board. Some members want more aggressive rate cuts to stimulate the jobs sector, while others are wary of lingering sticky inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell walked a fine line in his comments yesterday, acknowledging both risks, while appearing to side with neither side of the argument. Nonetheless, he did emphasize that the FOMC is expected to take a slow approach to rate cuts, signaling to the White House that he is in charge of monetary policy until his term expires in May. We’ll see revisions in the second quarter GDP readings tomorrow, along with August durable goods orders data, which analysts expect to show contracting during the month. We’ll also get the weekly jobless claim data. But the primary focus will likely be on Friday’s personal income and outlays data that is expected to show modest gains in headline inflation, countered by modest softening of core inflation. The next Fed meeting comes at the end of October, with the market currently trading nearly 95% odds of another rate cut at that meeting, followed by a third rate cut in December, despite Powell’s comments about taking a slow approach to rate cuts. The market is pricing in three more rate cuts by March of next year.

Electricity consumption provides another way to measure economic activity in China by sector, even as China continues to move toward electronic vehicles. Total electricity consumption grew at a 5% pace in August, down from 8.8% in July. Electricity usage in the first eight months of the calendar year rose 4.6% versus the previous year’s pace. Sixty percent of China’s electricity use is by mining and manufacturing, which rose 5% year-on-year in August, up from 4.7% in July, and up from 4% growth in August of last year. Power consumption for the service sector grew 7.2% year-on-year in August, but that was down from 10.7% in July, and down from 11.2% growth the previous year. Residential power use growth slowed to 2.4% growth on the year in August, down from 18% in July and 11% in June, with 6.6% growth seen for the January to August period. The bottom line is that we’re seeing a shift in power consumption toward stimulating factory activity, while usage by the business and private sectors is softening due to a slowing Chinese economy, except in those sectors that are heavily subsidized.

Mexico is back in the headlines this week. We started the week with the USDA revealing that Mexico had notified it that a beef animal had been found to have larvae of the dreaded New World Screwworm on it less than 70 miles south of our border with Mexico. Mexico said that there was no reason to worry, because the animal had just recently been transported from southern areas where the NWS is more common, and that there had not been time for the larvae to mature into adult flies prior to detection. But that is a problem, because the animal should not have been allowed to be transported north out of infested areas, suggesting that USDA will likely not be opening the border for Mexican cattle to flow into the United States again for a very long time. USDA’s statement also contained a single sentence stating that we can expect an announcement from the White House later this week regarding President Trump’s plan for increasing the cattle supply in the United States. That led to speculation that the White House will unveil a financial stimulus program to get cattlemen to hold back young heifers to rebuild the breeding herd, which would further tighten supplies available for feeding. As such, deferred feeder cattle futures surged roughly $20 per cwt at one point this week. Yet, we still lack clarity on the White House plan. Now Trump appears to be ratcheting up pressure on Mexico to negotiate a trade deal, emphasizing that Mexican exports to the United States account for 20 million jobs there. Mexico’s economy is struggling, with retail sales down 9%.

But Mexico is buying U.S. corn in large volumes to feed cattle down there that can’t be exported to the States to be fed. USDA confirmed another corn sale to Mexico this morning of 12.3 million bushels. Known corn sales to Mexico over the past week total 34.1 million bushels, on top of a sale to “unknown destinations” that very well may also be Mexican buyers totaling 8.1 million bushels. This suggests that we will see this year’s record-breaking corn export sales pace continue a bit longer.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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