Perspective: Morning Commentary September 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 03 Sep 2025, 13:57

Today's Perspective Video: China & Courts Fight Back Against Trump Tariffs

September 3 – Stock futures tried to rebound overnight, although traders remain cautious ahead of key jobs data to be released on Thursday and Friday. The VIX is trading near 17 this morning, while the dollar index is trading near 98.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.26%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.65%. Crude oil prices took back most of yesterday’s gains overnight, while the grain and oilseed sector was mostly weaker as well.

President Trump is expected to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court as early as today, regarding a decision handed down by an Appeals Court on Friday declaring many of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs based on his emergency declaration as illegal. The Appeals Court kept the tariffs in place though until October 14, allowing the Trump Administration time to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court. The president is expected to ask the Supreme Court for an expedited decision. The White House believes that it has other legal options to keep the tariffs in place if the Supreme Court rules against it, but those would also likely be tested in court. There’s a broad assumption that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump, but there is notable risk that it will not. This court, which consists of many Trump appointees, has leaned on its “major questions doctrine” to make many decisions. That doctrine is based on a belief that if Congress wants to give an executive agency the power to make decisions of “vast economic and political significance,” it must specifically state such. That is the uncertainty that was inserted into the markets late on Friday that carried into yesterday’s trade, and that continues to hang over the markets.

The above court decision gives courage to President Xi Jinping of China and President Vladimir Putin of China, who were joined over the past week by India and Brazil in their fight to defeat Trump’s objectives. Putin was present today for China’s big military parade celebrating the anniversary of victory over Japan in World War II. It was a grand day for China to display its military power before the world. Its boast of unity was to show Xi hosting Putin and North Korean President Kim Jong Un together for the parade – not an image of peace and democracy. The major wire services are reporting a hot mic conversation between Xi and Putin as they walked together to the parade that provided insight into how they see themselves. The two discussed how biotechnology can extend their lives via continuous organ transplants, with Putin stating via his translator, “The longer you live, the younger you become, and (you can) even achieve immortality.” Xi responded, “Some predict that in this century humans may live to 150 years old.” The reason that I share this is that it gives us context into these two world power leaders. They both see themselves as dictators who will be able to serve for many years, outlasting any American leader in pursuit of their objectives. These leaders see history through a long lens of centuries, while we see history through four-year political cycles. They’re willing to play the long game, believing that they will win in the end.

Wall Street is braced for key jobs data over the next several days. Later this morning we should see the JOLTS report showing posted job openings, quits and hires, providing some indication of the health of the U.S. jobs market. That will be followed by the private sector August employment report tomorrow from ADP. The U.S. Department of Labor will release its monthly jobs report on Friday morning. It’s previous report included a downward revision of 258K jobs for the past two months, resulting in a high-level firing at the Department of Labor based on the failure to turn out reports with greater accuracy. As such, traders will be watching this report for how it will be handled by that individual’s replacement. The table appears to be set for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve mid-month, pending this week’s jobs data. Wall Street actually seems to want a weak jobs report that will assure it of a rate cut – a case where bad news is good news for traders.

USDA cut its corn and soybean crop ratings notably on Monday afternoon, reflecting the adverse impact of disease and drought on this year’s crops. That sets the stage for USDA crop scouts who are out in the fields pulling samples this week to determine the yields that it will use in its balance sheets on September 12. Private estimates will be coming out ahead of next week’s USDA report, including the StoneX customer survey to be released tomorrow after the markets close. I have not yet seen the data, so don’t read anything into my comments, but the expectation is that crop yields will be lower in September than in August, after the month of August was generally not friendly for crop development. Traders are also looking south to Brazil, where farmers in some regions can now start to plant early crops. However, most farmers in the highly productive Center-West region continue to wait for the end of the dry season before planting. Most models continue to project an earlier start to the monsoon rains that would allow planting in late September or early October – earlier than recent years. However, there is a drier risk to those forecasts, so it’s something that we will continue to monitor.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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