Precious Metals Talking points 062926: StoneX weekly gold, silver round-up; gold suffers the Death Cross
Politics, economic, geopolitics and investor sentiment
Rhona O'Connell
- Precious Metals
Precious Metals Talking points 062926: StoneX weekly gold, silver round-up; gold suffers the Death Cross
By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
Weekly round -up for StoneX Bullion; Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis,
Some interest developing but inflation fears hover overhead
EMEA & Asia, 29th June 2026:
Tel +44 203 580 6115 / +44 7384 833897
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Silver; also below all four with the 20-Day MA about to cross below the 10D.
We have been saying for some weeks that it is axiomatic that extended periods of very narrow range trading do tend to lead to a build-up of pressure and generate a breakout in one direction or the other. The fall across the board in the markets at the end of last week can’t necessarily be called a break-out, but we did at least see some life in the markets as increased geopolitical tensions coupled with much stronger Nonfarm payrolls in the US, announced on Friday, burst a few bubbles, with all four precious metals sliding on rising expectations of at least one rate hike in the States this year. As widely expected, Kevin Warsh will have his diplomatic work cut out with the president seemingly reversing course from his independence comments at Mr. Warsh’s swearing-in ceremony, and calling over this past weekend for a rate cut; but the external parameters point, if anything, in the opposite direction and the bond market is reacting accordingly. That said, these markets are now oversold and the background outlook will depend to some event on whether there is follow-through selling in Asia or whether some bargain hunting starts to appear. Gold is trading below $4,330 and silver below $68. Gold’s key moving averages range from $4,428 (200D) to $4,614 (50D). Silver’s key averages are between $68.4 (200D) and $77.08 (20D). On an RSI basis, both are oversold, silver more so than gold. Gold and silver are both at their lowest since 23rd March. In the professional markets the gold and silver ETFs have remained friendless with continued attrition. The COMEX activity to the week ended Tuesday 26th saw a cautiously bullish move in sentiment (but no such move in the price) with outright longs rising 16t (4%) to 492t and shorts contracting by 30t or 36% to just 54t, the lowest outright short since end-January, when prices peaked; and compared with a 12-month average of 97t. If anything this is a potential bear signal. Over the same period silver crawled from $73 to $76 (before retreating); this was accompanied by a similar pattern to gold but in smaller scope, with a 2.3% gain in outright longs and a 0.2% contraction in shorts; the silver shorts stand at 1,027t, compared with a 12-month average of 1,749t. Gold and the 2Y, 10Y yields: correlation with 10Y, 0.78; with 2Y, 0.77 Source for charts: Bloomberg, StoneX |
Meanwhile the President is now calling for a need for a rate cut despite the evidence to the contrary. The Nonfarm Payrolls, at first glance, point in the other direction but Pantheon Macroeconomics makes the following salient points (among others): - the 172k jump in May was well above consensus forecast, which is ascribed largely to “an erratic jump in local government payrolls”, with private payrolls rising by 120k, leaving the three-month average gain at 166k, the highest since June 2023. Pantheon believes that this momentum is unsustainable because, inter alia
Silver; also below all four major moving averages with the 20D threatening to cross below the 10D
Outlook; mixed
The Core PCE released in the States last week was 4.4%, in line with expectations but still too high for the comfort of the FOMC and, in tandem with healthy Q1 GDP (2.1%, well above expectations) plus comparatively strong consumer spending serves to underpin the clarity of the message coming from new Chair Kevin Warsh and is likely to keep gold under pressure. Fellow members of the FOMC were robust last week in their views; Dean Goolsbee (Chicago) said on Thursday that he saw glimmers of light in the latest inflation figures, but that prices nonetheless are too high “and trending the wrong way”, while John Williams (New York) noted that inflation was “unquestionably elevated” and although the tariff effect has passed through, supply risks due to the Middle East remain “a source of risk to both the growth and inflation outlooks”.
The US Administration is expected to impose wide-ranging tariffs on a number of countries on 24th July (when the current 10% global tariff expires) on the back of concern over counterparties not sufficiently preventing the import of goods believed to be made with forced labour. This includes China, the EU, Japan and India and a certain amount of early purchase and shipping is underway (freight rates are at four-year highs). This may put some further pressure on commodity prices thereafter and silver would most likely be caught up in this. The position is exacerbated by companies also looking to ship goods ahead of any renewed surge in fuel costs.
Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t)
Source: CFTC, StoneX
COMEX Managed Money Silver Positioning (t)
Source: CFTC, StoneX
COMEX Managed Money gold positions, as prices eased marginally in the week to 22nd June, saw outright longs expand by just 2.4% or 10t while shorts expanded just over four tonnes or 10%, taking the net long up by just five tonnes to 359t. Silver longs dropped by 6% or 190t to 2,823t while shorts lost less than 1% to 905t, leaving the net long at 1,918t.
Gold ETFs are again friendless. The latest numbers from the World Gold Council date to 19th June, at 4,086t, a 61.8t gain for the year to date; since then, Bloomberg has reported net losses of 20t. Silver ETFs saw some bargain hunting at the end of last week after combined losses of 260t over the course of June. This takes the year-to-date net redemptions to 2,421t or 9% to stand at 24,401t. World Mine production is ~26,300t.
The S&P, gold and copper; S&P/gold rising at 0.57 while S&P/Cu is 0.55
Source; Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold, silver and copper; silver-gold 0.82 (tighter) silver-copper, 0.72 (a lot looser)
Gold:Brent ratio
US five-year and 30-year yield
Source for above charts; Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold in key local currencies. Year-to-date, up just 4% in Rupee terms now , the strongest of the key measures, but down almost 3% in US$
Gold:silver ratio; expanding to 12-month highs; overbought
Source for above charts: Bloomberg, StoneX
| 29 June 2026 | Previous week | % change | Jan 2025 onwards | Range as % | |||
| Min | Max | ||||||
| Gold (pm LBMA price) | 4,072.05 | 4,150.90 | -1.90% | 53.88% | 1,985.10 | 5,405.00 | 172.28% |
| Silver (LBMA price) | 58.38 | 64.67 | -9.72% | 98.50% | 22.09 | 118.45 | 436.34% |
| Platinum (pm LBMA price) | 1,613.00 | 1,662.00 | -2.95% | 75.14% | 1,589.00 | 2,811.00 | 76.90% |
| Palladium (pm LBMA price) | 1,200.00 | 1,247.00 | -3.77% | 30.29% | 852.00 | 2,106.00 | 147.18% |
| S&P 500 | 7,354.02 | 7,500.58 | -1.95% | 24.50% | 4,688.68 | 7,609.78 | 62.30% |
| $:€ | 1.1384 | 1.1471 | -0.76% | 9.38% | 1.0244 | 1.2041 | 17.54% |
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
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