South American Grain Report
Brazilian soybean, corn and sorghum exports in October; Sorghum exports hit record high; Comments on the November WASDE for Brazil and Argentina
StoneX Intelligence Brazil
- Grains & Oilseeds
South American Grain Report
StoneX Intelligence Brazil
StoneX Intelligence Brazil
South American grain market fundamentals
Brazilian soybean, corn and sorghum exports in October; sorghum shipments hit a new monthly record
MDIC released consolidated data on Brazilian soybean, corn and sorghum exports for October:
- Soybean exports fell 13.8% from September and 5.71% from October 2025, while Chinese purchases dropped 16.5% month-on-month.
- Cumulative soybean exports in 2026 through October total 107.7 million tonnes, still 2.8% above the same period in 2025.
- Corn exports reached 5.91 million tonnes in October, up 9.2% from September but 12.5% below October 2025.
For more details, see this interactive report.
Comments: The decline in Brazilian soybean exports in October compared with September reflects the usual seasonal pattern for this time of year, as the shipping window for the domestic crop comes to a close. From now on, shipments to China should increasingly come from the U.S., which gains a larger share of the Asian country's imports after the U.S. harvest. Based on historical averages, this share should keep rising through February, and Brazil should regain its lead as China's main supplier of the commodity in April 2027.
China | Share (%) of soybean imports by origin, per month
Source: GACC. Prepared by: StoneX.
Once again, the highlight of the month was Brazilian sorghum exports. Brazil exported 1.2 million tonnes of the grain in October, a new monthly record. Two factors explain this strong performance. The first is the growth in domestic production, as planted area has grown about 6.5-fold over the last five crop seasons.
The second, and perhaps the most important, is China opening its market. China is the world's largest sorghum importer, accounting for more than 80% of global purchases. In November 2025, it approved the first Brazilian facilities to export sorghum to the country.
Source: Comex Stat (MDIC/Secex), NCM 1007. (*) Jan–Oct. Prepared by: StoneX.
For more details, see this special report on Brazilian sorghum published by StoneX yesterday.
November WASDE – USDA estimates for Brazil and Argentina
USDA raises corn production estimates for both countries and keeps soybean estimates unchanged
The USDA released its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday (Nov. 10). Its revisions for South America's 2026/27 crop were:
- Soybeans: The USDA kept its production estimates for Brazil at 186 million tonnes and Argentina at 50 million tonnes. Paraguay's estimate was also unchanged at 11.1 million tonnes.
- Corn – Brazil: The production estimate rose by 2 million tonnes (+1.4%) to 141 million because of a larger summer corn area. The export estimate stayed at 43 million tonnes. The 2025/26 production estimate was revised from 141 million to 144.5 million tonnes (+2.5%).
- Corn – Argentina: The production estimate rose by 2 million tonnes (+3.6%) to 57 million. According to the agency, the above-average planting pace points to a larger area.
- Sorghum – Brazil: The production estimate rose by 1.5 million tonnes (+23.1%) to 8.0 million on area expansion. The USDA also expects higher shipments.
- Wheat – Argentina: The production estimate rose by 1.5 million tonnes (+7.0%) to 23.0 million on favorable conditions throughout the season. The USDA also expects higher exports from the country.
Comments: The report confirmed the estimates for South American crops, with no surprises for soybeans. Still, the USDA's numbers remain below local estimates for most products:
- Soybeans in Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projects 53.6 million tonnes, 3.6 million above the USDA estimate.
- Corn in Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projects 66 million tonnes, 9 million above the USDA estimate. Further upward revisions are possible as planting progresses.
- Corn in Brazil: StoneX projects 146 million tonnes, 5 million above the USDA estimate.
- Soybeans in Brazil: Of the products compared, this is the only one where the USDA estimate is above the local projections cited. Its 186 million tonnes figure is 4.4 million above the 181.6 million estimated by Conab in its October survey. It is also above StoneX's projection of 184.95 million tonnes.
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Brazil physical corn prices (BRL/bag)
Preços físicos de soja no Brasil (R$/saca)
- Grains & Oilseeds
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