Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have lifted energy prices and renewed concerns over global transport costs. While much of the market focus has centred on crude oil and fuel prices, the agricultural impact is likely to emerge unevenly across different crop sectors. Fresh produce relies on fast, temperature-controlled logistics that make transportation a much larger share of overall costs than for many grain markets. Specialty crops could become the earliest indicator of how higher energy prices feed into the wider food supply chain.
Ben Klieve, Senior Research Analyst at Benchmark, follows agricultural markets with a particular focus on how macroeconomic and energy developments affect farm profitability and food supply chains. His analysis links movements in oil markets with transportation costs, crop economics and consumer pricing, providing a practical perspective on where inflationary pressures are most likely to emerge first.
Specialty crops are likely to experience higher energy costs sooner than many other agricultural markets because transportation represents a much larger share of their final value. Klieve explains that "it's a lot more expensive to transport a truckload of blueberries halfway across the world", highlighting the importance of refrigerated logistics for fresh produce. Increases in diesel prices can pass through the supply chain more quickly for fruit and vegetable producers than for grain growers. This helps explain why fresh produce prices may respond to higher oil prices before broader food categories begin reflecting similar inflationary pressures.
Higher oil prices alone do not guarantee widespread food inflation because different agricultural sectors absorb energy costs differently. Klieve notes that "you see a much higher degree of inflation from transportation costs and from energy costs specifically as it pertains to transportation and fruit and veg", while adding that the effect on grain markets has so far been limited. Specialty crops may provide an early signal of broader inflation trends if elevated energy prices persist. Over a longer period, sustained increases in transport costs could gradually spread through other agricultural supply chains, although weather remains the dominant driver of grain markets today.
Fresh fruit and vegetables depend on refrigerated transport and rapid distribution, making transportation costs a larger component of their final selling price than for most grains.
According to Ben Klieve, weather remains the primary driver of grain markets in the near term, with energy prices having a more limited direct influence at present.
Yes. The interview suggests specialty crops are likely to experience higher consumer prices first if elevated energy costs persist, with broader agricultural markets potentially following over time.
Access live prices, supply and demand data and actionable market commentary. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a 14-day trial.
Sign up for a Market Intelligence trial today
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Ben Klieve, Benchmark Senior Research Analyst
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Fresh fruit and vegetable markets are often the first agricultural sectors to feel rising energy costs because transportation plays a much larger role in final pricing. As oil prices remain elevated, refrigerated logistics and distribution costs could become a more immediate driver of food inflation than grain prices.
July 30 – The Fed held steady as expected, but in a divided decision as three of the twelve FOMC members dissented in favor of a 25-basis point hike. That end result, coupled with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s subsequent press conference, struck a notably hawkish tone—no surprise given the rise in real rates and the expected path of policy since the Fed’s last meeting, developments Warsh also highlighted. Part of this hawkish tilt was Warsh unequivocally rejecting any tolerance for above-target inflation, reiterating “there is no soft implicit target—not on this Committee’s watch. There is only a target, and it is 2%.” He also acknowledged that five-plus years of above-target inflation had damaged public confidence in the Fed’s commitment to that 2% target, while arguing that credibility now depends on delivering actual price stability rather than relying on guidance. The new Fed Chair has obviously inherited a very difficult situation, growing more complex seemingly by the day, though this morning’s employment and inflation data both look to provide something of a sigh of relief, however brief. Traders will likely take some time to adjust to the new era at the Fed, with an explicit emphasis on providing less forward guidance, but as we’ve seen time and again, the market will find a way to adapt.
Diesel and gasoil prices have been climbing well ahead of crude oil, driven by refining constraints and export restrictions rather than the Middle East routing story alone. StoneX Director of Energy Market Strategy Alex Hodes explains why diesel now trades on its own structural logic instead of tracking crude oil's price moves.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
