The MarketWatch Update
By: US RJO - Scott Magnuson, CTA, Analyst
April 16, 2026
He's baaack... All systems go for a Peace Deal soon! Traders are already getting on head start on things. It will now continue or they'll all bail out once again with short-term gains. Our bet is the better ones are beyond the initial 'high-risk' betting stage and now can manage positions with breakeven zero-risk strategies going forward. Just like the MarketWatch guidance... ha!
"We're still suspicious somebody told somebody else what they heard
somebody somewhere say some days ago!"
Today’s Market News and Trading Highlights
Experts, you define 'em, suggest that if oil prices drop below $90, the resulting lower inflation pressure could allow for even more bullish gold demand. Demand drives prices higher...
Polymetallic Rotation: Bet you haven't heard that term lately... Traders are increasingly rotating capital toward silver and strategic minerals like tungsten and indium as industrial buyers drain global stockpiles.
War over + Gold demand + Silver buyers = You can only imagine the possibilities next...
And don't take your eyes off of Copper. Copper Clapper analysts anticipate the copper market will swing into a 1-million-ton deficit in 2026, driven by AI infrastructure demand and mine supply disruptions.
Meanwhile, optimism continues to grow that the end of the Iran war may be close. A Pakistani mediator stated that there have been breakthroughs on “sticky issues” in the talks, although Iran states that the fate of its nuclear program has not yet been resolved.
That has been the red line for President Trump. The president has previously said that Iran will “never” be allowed to have a nuclear weapon, although he reportedly has recently offered to restrict Iran’s ability to enrich uranium for the next 20 years.
Perception is reality for Wall Street, even if that isn’t what actually represents reality. Wall Street perceives that all will be well with the economy once the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and we certainly will see much of the uncertainty relieved that is currently holding back the economy.
But the long tail of the war created by energy and fertilizer shortages will continue to have an impact for many months, if not years to come, which will have a bigger impact on commodity fundamentals.
Tomorrows Key Trading Reports
There are no Key Reports scheduled for release during Friday's market session
(source: Briefing Data Svc)
New Trading Suggestions
Listen tonight to learn more considering the bracketing entry technique to get short in the June Cattle
Consider selling the June Live Cattle at 250.00 OCO 246.70 Stop GTC. If filled risk to 252.20 initially. First objective is a price break to 244.20.
Option Traders Alert: Look to buy the May 245 Put at the market once one of the price objectives for entering a short futures position is achieved. (approx. opts value: $650 or less max premium risk)
(chart graphics: ICE Data Svc's-FS, Bloomberg, FCL Ltd, Reuters, CQG)
* * * * *
Current Open Trades and Position Management
Hold long the July Cocoa from 3530. Keep your protective sell stop at 3340 GTC. First objective is 3830.
We offset our recent long position in the July Coffee from 296.00 today by our stop loss order working at 292.25 for a loss of -3.75 on the trade. We'll continue observing for now... stay current by reading some of the Mkt Intel Research on the StnX site regarding Coffee for depth of flavor. It's worth taking sip...
Market Watch-List of Developing Opportunities
June Gold, July Wheat, May Cotton, Nov Beans, July Sugar
________________________________________________________________________________
Scott Magnuson, CTA : 888.861.1755
smagnuson@rjobrien.com : scott.magnuson@stonex.com
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