By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
A run of consecutive corn yield reductions from the U.S. Department of Agriculture tends to be read as the start of a trend, and the reflex after a second monthly cut is to assume a third is coming. The historical record makes a weaker case for that assumption than the run of cuts suggests, because in the years that most closely resemble this one the national corn yield moved higher between the September report and the January final. Only four years in the previous 15 carried corn yield cuts on both the August and September WASDE and narrowing further to the years where the first cut arrived in August leaves a much shorter list. That shorter list is where the useful comparison sits, and it points toward a supply side that is close to settled rather than one still unwinding.
Mike Castle is Senior Commodities Economist at StoneX, based in Kansas City, where he covers grain, oilseed and fertilizer markets and tracks supply and demand fundamentals, U.S. Department of Agriculture data and global trade flows. His coverage of WASDE revisions and crop condition data across the growing season connects directly to the question of how an initial May corn yield estimate becomes a final January number.
"Given the parallels that we've seen this year, 2026 has felt a lot like 2022", Castle says, setting out why one year stands apart from the rest of the comparison set. Corn yield cuts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on both the August and September WASDE occurred in only four of the previous 15 years, and two of those saw the first reduction arrive on the July report instead, which changes what the sequence means. Narrowing on that basis leaves a comparison built on matching cut timing rather than matching headlines, which is a harder test than it first appears. The parallels Castle points to run through the escalation in the Black Sea, the inflation backdrop and the crop condition trajectory into late summer rather than through the weather itself. For a corn buyer or producer reading the September report, the practical consequence is that the analog set is small enough that a single year carries most of the comparative weight.
A second consecutive corn yield cut does not establish the direction of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's remaining revisions, and the analog year demonstrates the reverse. Corn yield estimates in that year fell through August and September, slipped again on the October report, then recovered across November and the January final to finish above where September left them. Castle, addressing the assumption directly, argues that "a lot of the immediate reaction when you get that second in a row cut is, this is paving the way for them to continue moving lower, and I want to exercise caution, that's not always the case". Notably, the uncertainty that remains sits in what the agency cannot yet measure cleanly, specifically seed size and how pollination damage in one region offsets ideal conditions in another. Consequently, a market positioned for a third cut is carrying more revision risk than the run of reductions implies.
Managed money net length in corn has reached a record, surpassing the levels seen in the analog year, which changes how the market absorbs any further U.S. Department of Agriculture revision. Export demand shifting toward the U.S. in the 2026/27 marketing year, alongside an unresolved feed number on the balance sheet, leaves more room to move on the demand side than on a supply side that is nearly firm. According to Castle, "I truthfully think the demand side of the balance sheet is going to be much more influential to price in the rest of this marketing year". Whether that length persists depends on a catalyst rather than on the yield itself, with further escalation between Russia and Ukraine the most obvious candidate, evidenced by the ongoing restriction to movement from the Black Sea. Whereas short-term disruption in the analog year gave way to grain reaching the market, the restriction this time has not yet resolved.
--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX Media
--- Expert: Mike Castle, StoneX Senior Commodities Economist
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Two consecutive reductions to the national corn yield estimate have conditioned the market to expect a third, but the years that genuinely compare tell a more complicated story. The closest analog saw the yield move higher between the September report and the January final.
Algeria's largest recent milling wheat purchase went to Romanian, Bulgarian and potentially Baltic sellers, leaving Black Sea origins out of the deal entirely. Bertrand Oesterle explains what that choice says about export risk, buyer behavior and where wheat demand is heading next.
China has moved roughly halfway through its 25 million tonne soybean commitment, and the purchases have carried U.S. export commitments 8% ahead of the pace needed to reach the official target. The timing of the next tranche now sits with diplomacy rather than with crush margins.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
