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Market Analyst
Gold seasonality has leaned in gold's favor late in the year, with gold rising in 57.5% of Novembers and 65.4% of Decembers since 2000. November's average return over that period stands at 1.3%, a modest gain that still tilts the late-year record toward gold buyers. Gold seasonality carries more weight when it lines up with price action, such as a sharp rebound from a swing low after a strong multi-month selloff, helped by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower oil prices. Gold traders weighing that combination look at three things together, the seasonal record, options sentiment and price action around the swing low.
Matt Simpson, StoneX Media Market Analyst at StoneX, covers forex, indices, gold and oil, with a focus on FX macro, technical analysis and market sentiment. That coverage gives insight into how seasonal patterns, options positioning and chart structure are driving gold's rebound.
Gold has risen in 65.4% of Decembers since 2000, a stronger win rate than the 57.5% recorded in November across the same period. November still carries an average return of 1.3%, notably keeping the late-year record in positive territory before December's stronger hit rate takes over. Gold seasonality remains a tendency rather than a rule, and gold has still fallen in roughly a third of Decembers over that span. "If we have seen an important swing low on prices, seasonality could give it a tailwind into the new year," Simpson says. As a result, the December record carries the most weight in years when gold price action has already turned higher.
Gold risk reversals remain negative, meaning put options still trade at a premium to calls, but the gap between them has started to narrow. According to Simpson, the curl higher shows "bearish sentiment is easing even if traders haven't turned outright bullish just yet". Gold price action points the same way, with bears failing to hold prices beneath a recent swing low and a potential bullish engulfing pattern forming on the weekly chart. Consequently, gold's seasonal tailwind arrives alongside improving options sentiment and a firmer chart structure rather than in isolation.
Gold seasonality signals surface first in gold risk reversals, which show if puts are losing their premium over calls as bearish sentiment fades. The GDX to gold ratio tracks if gold mining stocks are outperforming the metal, a relative strength measure that can turn ahead of gold itself. Overbought readings on the Relative Strength Index and volume profile zones, such as the weekly volume point of control, mark the areas traders watch for pullbacks within an uptrend. U.S. nonfarm payrolls data is a scheduled release that can shift gold prices regardless of the calendar.
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Matt Simpson, StoneX Media Market Analyst
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Gold has historically gained more often in December than in November, giving the late-year calendar a measurable tilt. Gold seasonality carries the most weight when options sentiment and price structure point the same way.
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A document with a substantial number of slides and text, built for the Front Desk internal call and analysing market developments, the economic and political background and key market parameters influencing the precious metals.
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