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Market Analyst
Silver has dropped about 57% from its peak, and gold sits about 30% below its all-time high, a sharp reversal from the metals' strong run the year before. Bond yields and precious metals are moving in opposite directions because rising oil prices are keeping inflation risks and yields elevated, and neither gold nor silver pays a yield to compete. Silver has taken the heavier hit, falling into a major long-term support zone. Precious metals traders now want to know if that macro pressure has run its course.
Fawad Razaqzada, StoneX Media Market Analyst, covers forex, indices, commodities and cryptocurrencies, along with the macroeconomic forces that move them. That coverage gives insight into how oil prices, inflation risks and bond yields are feeding through to gold and silver.
Rising oil prices have kept inflation risks and bond yields elevated, creating a difficult backdrop for silver and gold. "This year, the macro backdrop has proved to be far more challenging for precious metals," Razaqzada says, pointing to the U.S. war on Iran as the trigger for the surge in oil. Higher yields raise the cost of holding assets that pay no income, and Razaqzada describes how that combination has "weighed heavily on zero-yielding gold and silver" . Consequently, silver now trades about 57% below its peak, a much deeper fall than gold's.
Silver's long-term demand profile stands apart from its price action, specifically through its use in solar energy, smartphones, laptops, AI data centers and electric vehicles. According to Razaqzada, "Expectations of strengthening demand for silver make a compelling bullish long term case." Central banks also continue to add gold to their reserves, whereas bond yields keep pressure on both metals in the short term. Silver is still making lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart, which is why Razaqzada adds that "I wouldn't rush to call a bottom just yet."
Silver reversal signals surface first on the daily chart, where a break above the short-term bearish trend line would mark a clear shift in price action. The pattern of lower lows and lower highs shows if the silver downtrend is still intact. On the macro side, oil prices and bond yields show if the pressure on zero-yielding metals is easing. Central bank gold buying tracks the official sector demand that sits beneath the precious metals market.
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Fawad Razaqzada, StoneX Media Market Analyst
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Rising oil prices have kept bond yields elevated, and silver has fallen far harder than gold as a result. Fawad Razaqzada explains how the squeeze from bond yields works and why silver's long-term demand story is running against its price trend.
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A document with a substantial number of slides and text, built for the Front Desk internal call and analysing market developments, the economic and political background and key market parameters influencing the precious metals.
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