Why U.S. Soybeans Can No Longer Compete on Price

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 08 Jan 2026, 17:39

Global soybean markets are no longer defined by incremental yield gains or seasonal demand cycles alone. Structural cost differences between producing regions now dominate pricing power and trade flows. As supply expands from lower-cost origins, higher-cost producers face shrinking margins and fewer export opportunities. This realignment is forcing a reassessment of how competitiveness is measured in U.S. agriculture.

Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist, explains how production economics and currency dynamics have shifted the cost balance away from U.S. soybean growers.

Key Themes from the Discussion

Brazil’s multi-crop production model lowers per-unit costs.
Currency weakness amplifies competitiveness for non-U.S. exporters.
Cost pressures reduce the U.S. role in price-setting exports.

Watch the Full Conversation

Structural Cost Advantages Shift South

Brazil’s soybean expansion is rooted in production flexibility rather than short-term price incentives. Suderman notes that “Brazil has the cost advantage” due in part to its ability to grow multiple crops on the same land each year. This efficiency lowers average production costs and increases supply resilience across seasons. As a result, Brazil increasingly sets the competitive benchmark for global soybean pricing.

Currency Dynamics Undermine U.S. Competitiveness

Cost structures are further distorted by foreign exchange movements that favor exporting nations. Suderman states plainly that “the United States is no longer the low cost producer” as a strong dollar raises the effective price of U.S. soybeans abroad. Meanwhile, weaker currencies in exporting countries reduce dollar-denominated costs and attract buyers. This FX imbalance compounds production advantages and accelerates the shift in global market share.

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--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX TV

--- Expert: Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist

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Morning Grain Comments 8-5

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

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