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world trade updates

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

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trade updates

  • China
    • This week: China bought roughly 10–15 U.S. soybean cargos after the Trump–Xi call, with USDA confirming a 312 KMT flash sale. Beijing suspended all retaliatory tariffs on U.S. ag products, and Chinese inspectors rejected a Brazilian soybean cargo for wheat contamination, which indirectly supports U.S. origin.
    • Status: China is committed to about 12 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases by year-end, then 25 MMT per year in 2026–28. Recent buying has focused on Gulf/PNW shipments for Jan–Mar arrival.
    • Next 3 months: Market will watch for follow-through on the 12 MMT target, additional tariff-exclusion lists, and whether China’s quality crackdown on Brazil continues to redirect incremental demand to the U.S.
  • European Union
    • This week: EU ministers moved forward on implementing the August U.S.–EU deal that cuts or eliminates tariffs on a range of U.S. ag products (dairy, pork, bison, nuts, fruit/veg, processed foods, soybean oil) and extends 0% tariffs for U.S. lobster, including processed.
    • Status: The EU is working to streamline SPS procedures for U.S. pork and dairy while preserving safeguards for sensitive EU sectors.
    • Next 3 months: European Parliament approval and technical work to activate new tariff cuts and TRQs, likely starting to bite in early 2026.
  • Brazil
    • This week: The U.S. scrapped the extra 40% tariffs on Brazilian beef, coffee, cocoa, fruits and other food items, retroactive to mid-November, freeing up stuck shipments and easing U.S. input costs.
    • Status: U.S.–Brazil talks are ongoing following the Trump–Lula call; Brazil’s beef and coffee sectors are positioning to regain and expand U.S. market share.
    • Next 3 months: Follow-on negotiations could address remaining tariffs and conditions, with Brazil pushing for more durable access for beef and other ag products.
  • Japan
    • This week: The new U.S.–Japan “Phase 2” agreement was spotlighted by farm groups as a major ag win, with Japan agreeing to a 75% increase in U.S. rice import quotas and more imports of U.S. corn, soy, feed, fertilizer and ethanol (including SAF feedstock).
    • Status: The deal effectively aligns U.S. treatment with CPTPP competitors in the Japanese market and includes regulatory cooperation (e.g., auto standards) as part of a broader package.
    • Next 3 months: Japan’s procurement agencies will begin implementing larger rice and grain purchases; USDA and USTR will be tracking real volumes versus commitments.
  • United Kingdom
    • This week: The U.S.–UK agreement in principle continues to be refined; both sides are closing out remaining chapters. The UK has agreed to open more access for U.S. beef, dairy, ethanol and processed foods.
    • Status: The deal is expected to boost U.S. exports by around $5 billion annually, including roughly $700 million in ethanol and $250 million in beef.
    • Next 3 months: Final text and ratification steps, plus potential resolution on UK digital tax and related irritants; timing of actual tariff cuts will matter for U.S. ag exporters.
  • Canada and Mexico (USMCA)
    • This week: U.S. farm groups continued filings and lobbying ahead of the formal 2026 USMCA review. Attention remains on Mexico’s corn policy and Canada’s dairy TRQs.
    • Status: Mexico reversed its GM corn import ban after losing a USMCA panel but is simultaneously hardening domestic anti-GMO rules, which keeps biotech tensions alive. Canada’s allocation of dairy quotas still limits actual access despite two adverse rulings.
    • Next 3 months: Possible new U.S.–Mexico biotech talks and further U.S. enforcement steps on Canadian dairy if Ottawa does not materially adjust TRQ administration.
  • Latin America (Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, El Salvador)
    • This week: The U.S. announced trade frameworks with all four countries as a first step toward deeper agreements.
    • Status: Argentina is working toward expanded two-way beef access and more room for U.S. grains; Ecuador is planning TRQs for U.S. ag products; Guatemala is committing to science-based regulatory standards for U.S. food and feed; El Salvador is pledging broader access for U.S. exports as the U.S. lifts certain tariffs.
    • Next 3 months: Working-level talks should begin to put product lists and tariff schedules on paper, with early movement possible on beef protocols with Argentina and specific quota/standard changes in the others.
  • Southeast Asia (Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand)
    • This week: The U.S. signed reciprocal trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia and launched negotiation frameworks with Vietnam and Thailand.
    • Status: These are early-stage but aimed at lowering tariffs and SPS/import-licensing barriers on U.S. meats, grains and processed foods, and at anchoring the U.S. more firmly in the region outside CPTPP.
    • Next 3 months: First negotiating rounds with Vietnam and Thailand, and potential “early harvest” measures (for example, faster approvals or modest tariff cuts on select ag items).
  •  
  • India
    • This week: Talks continued against a backdrop of U.S. tariffs tied to India’s Russian oil purchases; India signed a large LPG import deal with the U.S., underscoring ongoing economic engagement.
    • Status: Agriculture remains a friction point—U.S. wants more access for dairy, poultry and fruit; India wants relief on U.S. tariffs affecting its exports (including some ag goods) and remains protective of its farmers.
    • Next 3 months: A limited mini-deal is possible if India adjusts its Russia posture, but major ag concessions are unlikely before India’s 2026 elections; watch for small moves like tweaks to Indian tariffs on U.S. apples, walnuts or pulses.
  •  
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (AGOA)
    • This week: AGOA remains lapsed; African governments and industries are lobbying hard in Washington for renewal or replacement. U.S. officials have floated a short extension.
    • Status: With AGOA expired, African ag exports to the U.S. (wine, citrus, nuts, coffee, cocoa, specialty foods) now face MFN tariffs, hurting competitiveness and already triggering order cancellations in some sectors.
    • Next 3 months: Congressional debate and possible votes on an AGOA extension or “AGOA 2.0.” Any extension, especially if retroactive, would stabilize African–U.S. ag trade; failure to act keeps pressure on supply chains and may push African exporters toward EU/China instead.
  • Grains & Oilseeds

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