Tomas Pernias, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst, examines how recent global events are pushing Brazilian fertilizer prices higher.
The Brazilian fertilizer market is highly dependent on imports, with more than 90 percent of urea consumed in 2023 sourced internationally. When conflict erupted in the Middle East, prices reacted sharply. “Brazilian buyers become concerned about what’s happening and the potential impact on prices”. Within days, urea prices rose by over $50 and ammonia and nitrate also saw increases north of 10 percent.
Brazil’s nitrogen fertilizer demand surges from July as farmers secure supplies for planting, but recent price spikes add over $50 per tonne just as they need inputs most. Higher credit costs and soft corn and soybean prices worsen affordability, putting producers under unprecedented cost pressure for the upcoming season.
New EU penalties on Russian fertilizer imports will shift global trade patterns and raise prices for European farmers. Russia has become a growing supplier to Brazil,particularly for ammonium nitrate and MAP. While theoretical redirection of Russian volumes could benefit Brazilian buyers, Pernias cautions that <em“it>, given tight global supply and competition from the United States, India and China.</em“it>
Without a clear path to de-escalation in the Middle East and with production down in key exporting regions, Brazilian producers face the prospect of even higher input costs. If credit remains expensive and crop price uncertainty persists, the squeeze on margins could deepen, posing risks to the planting season and wider agricultural output.
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---- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Tomas Pernias, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst
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Global fertilizer markets defied every supply warning this season, absorbing a Strait of Hormuz closure, halted Chinese exports, and reduced European production without a single reported shortage. The hidden buffer was not logistics or policy resilience but a quiet, widespread decision by farmers around the world to apply less nitrogen when prices pushed too high.
India’s next urea tender is becoming the defining event for global fertilizer markets as prices weaken and buyers regain leverage. The outcome could determine whether the recent correction deepens further or stabilises heading into the second half of 2026.
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