By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
Josh Linville, VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, joined Johanna Botta to discuss the latest moves disrupting global fertilizer markets.
Linville explained that India’s latest urea tender offered almost 5.6 million tonnes, far more than expected. “Even if you double counted it, it’s still a big, big number”. This sudden surge offsets earlier bullish expectations and highlights the weight of supply in the market.
Chinese urea exports have quickly shifted from near zero in early 2025 to potentially more than 4 million tonnes. Linville described them as “the boogie man of the world”. He noted that this supply flood gives buyers leverage, as many step back and delay purchases while prices face downward pressure.
While farm margins remain thin, anhydrous ammonia appears to offer relative value compared with urea and UAN. Linville highlighted that some Midwest farmers could save $20 to $40 per acre by switching. “Mother Nature will make the final determination of how big or small the fall is”.
The outlook for phosphate and potash remains uncertain. Some expect higher potash applications as farmers avoid expensive phosphate, while others foresee cuts across both due to weak profitability. Linville warned that if big harvests deplete nutrients, delayed fertilizer demand could resurface suddenly at the start of application season.
The Farmer Fertilizer Focus Plan will lift the veil on market trends, factors to watch for, and unique perspectives to consider for your operation, helping you make more informed, financially beneficial decisions. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a free 14-day trial.
Access NowSee our financial videos hub
---- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only.
StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs.
This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity.
The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice.
Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced.
This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research.
StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity.
StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate.
This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations.
Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
European nitrogen production has settled well below pre-2022 levels, and the constraint now looks structural rather than temporary. Josh Linville explains why aging plants, damaged pipeline infrastructure and industrial policy leave global buyers competing for supply from fewer origins.
Canada supplies roughly 90% of U.S. potash imports while relying on U.S. routes to reach world buyers, making tariff threats a two-way risk. Josh Linville explains how quickly that relationship unravels if either side moves, and who ends up carrying the cost.
A corn rally has left fertilizer values sitting near the cheap end of their multi-year range, and that gap is closing from the bottom up rather than the top down. Josh Linville traces how farmer buying, retailer restocking and manufacturer pricing combine to end an affordability window, and why phosphate has almost no room to fall.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
