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By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
China’s export restrictions on rare earth minerals mark the start of a new phase in global trade, where access to resources defines economic power. The shift from open markets to strategic control is reshaping how nations compete and how commodities are priced. Readers will gain insight into how this transition is influencing agriculture, energy, and metals—and why supply security now matters as much as supply volume.
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explores how rising resource nationalism is altering global trade flows, influencing commodity pricing, and challenging long-standing market assumptions.
Arlan Suderman explains that China’s near-90% control over processed rare earths has turned supply into strategy. “They now control 90% of them,” he notes, underscoring how dependence on one supplier reshapes industrial and defense planning. This dominance has allowed Beijing to apply pressure across sectors from automotive to aviation. As Suderman outlines, once production becomes policy, markets lose the comfort of neutrality.
Suderman warns that global grain and energy markets are no longer insulated from geopolitical leverage. “Relations between China and the United States have soured considerably,” he observes, linking that shift to weaker U.S. soybean exports and tighter corn and wheat balances. While supplies remain adequate, he adds, “we’re relatively hand-to-mouth in world corn supplies,” leaving little margin for shocks. The message for producers and investors is clear—volatility will increasingly be driven by policy, not just weather.
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---- Expert: Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist
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October 9 – Stock futures are pointing to an attempted end of week rebound after losing ground in recent days, while the VIX has cooled back below the 15.2 level to start the day. The dollar is up slightly after a back-and-forth session yesterday, continuing to linger near 18-month highs. Treasury yields are resuming their move higher, with 2-year yields trading at 4.804%, 10-year yields at 5.257%, and 30-year yields at 5.622% at the time of writing. Crude oil has traded both sides of unchanged today, reacting to headlines in both directions, but nearby WTI is hanging slightly in the red, down 0.4% to trade near $90.80 at the time of writing, while nearby Brent is up 0.9% to trade near $103.20. The ags are largely mixed to start the session, with all eyes on today’s October WASDE report due out at 11:00 AM Central Time as traders wait to see what shifts USDA will make after incorporating the September quarterly stocks figures, with the biggest questions on corn.
October 8 – Crude oil is higher and stock futures are pointing lower to start the day while the VIX rises back above the 15.7 level. The combination of escalatory rhetoric and continued Iranian strikes on vessels in the region coupled with hurricane related U.S. Gulf production impacts has nearby WTI up close to 4% on the day as it trades at its highest level of the week near $92.40, while nearby Brent is up a stronger 4.6% to trade at a three-week high near $104.80. The rise in crude prices and another week of strong U.S. labor data drives rate expectations higher, reflected in the rise in the dollar as it pushes another 0.1% higher to trade near 102.35, while Treasury yields push higher as well, with the strength at the front-end of the curve. 2-year Treasury yields are up 5 basis points to trade at 4.814%, 10-year yields are up 3 basis points to trade at 5.307%, and 30-year yields are up just over 1 basis point to trade at 5.674%. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed at the break, with the biggest weakness on the soy side while the wheat complex hovers just above unchanged.
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