By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
China’s export restrictions on rare earth minerals mark the start of a new phase in global trade, where access to resources defines economic power. The shift from open markets to strategic control is reshaping how nations compete and how commodities are priced. Readers will gain insight into how this transition is influencing agriculture, energy, and metals—and why supply security now matters as much as supply volume.
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explores how rising resource nationalism is altering global trade flows, influencing commodity pricing, and challenging long-standing market assumptions.
Arlan Suderman explains that China’s near-90% control over processed rare earths has turned supply into strategy. “They now control 90% of them,” he notes, underscoring how dependence on one supplier reshapes industrial and defense planning. This dominance has allowed Beijing to apply pressure across sectors from automotive to aviation. As Suderman outlines, once production becomes policy, markets lose the comfort of neutrality.
Suderman warns that global grain and energy markets are no longer insulated from geopolitical leverage. “Relations between China and the United States have soured considerably,” he observes, linking that shift to weaker U.S. soybean exports and tighter corn and wheat balances. While supplies remain adequate, he adds, “we’re relatively hand-to-mouth in world corn supplies,” leaving little margin for shocks. The message for producers and investors is clear—volatility will increasingly be driven by policy, not just weather.
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---- Expert: Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist
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Black Sea export revenue has collapsed and the pressure is landing on next season's winter wheat and rapeseed planting. Falling farm income, rising freight costs, Russian state support measures and European dryness now shape the acreage decision more than the war headlines do.
August 19 – Stock futures were quietly mixed for much of the night. Two wars continue to weigh on investor sentiment, but the economy continues to push forward. Treasury yields pulled back a bit overnight, but the trend remains higher. Yet, the VIX continues to trade near 15 this morning, which is a relatively low level reflecting a sense of complacency. The dollar index is trading near at an 11-week low near 99.0 as it slips lower in recent days, helping to offset a slow rise in commodity prices. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.64% after hitting fresh 19-month highs yesterday, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.17%. WTI crude oil is trading near $85, while Brent trades near $91 per barrel this morning.
August 18 – Stock futures continued to leak lower overnight amid escalating tensions on two war fronts, and as Treasury yields push higher. The VIX inched higher to trade near 16 as well, although that is still relatively low. Even so, it is firming. The dollar index is trading near 99.6 as investors assess Japan’s financial stability. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.74% at this hour, after posting a fresh 19-month high this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.20%. WTI crude oil is trading near $85, while Brent trades near $91 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are firmer this morning, garnering support from solid demand, more yet unconfirmed reports of hits on grain boats in the Black Sea, and amid crop tour results that put some doubts on the size of this year’s crops.
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