By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
As of 17 March 2026, fertilizer markets are entering a more critical phase as energy disruptions begin to constrain global production capacity. What started as logistical delays linked to the Strait of Hormuz has evolved into a broader supply issue affecting multiple layers of the fertilizer value chain. Energy flows, particularly liquefied natural gas, are now emerging as a key bottleneck for production. This shift is raising the risk of sustained shortages across nitrogen and phosphate markets, with implications for global agriculture.
Josh Linville, StoneX VP of Fertilizer, has spent years analyzing global fertilizer trade flows and production economics across nitrogen and phosphate markets. His direct focus on input costs, trade routes, and seasonal demand cycles gives him a clear view of how energy disruptions translate into fertilizer supply risks at a global level.
LNG supply disruptions are directly reducing nitrogen fertilizer production capacity in key importing countries such as India. Josh Linville explains that "a lot of that goes into countries like India, for example, who need that gas to feed their nitrogen production facilities", highlighting the dependency on external energy flows. As a result, reduced LNG availability is forcing production rates lower, with reports suggesting facilities may be operating well below normal levels. This constraint is tightening global nitrogen supply and increasing the likelihood of price volatility as demand remains steady.
Fertilizer production risks are expanding beyond the Persian Gulf as key inputs such as sulfur and ammonia become harder to source. Linville notes that "one of the two biggest inputs for variable cost inputs for phosphate production in hydrous... number two variable cost input sulfur", emphasizing the critical role of these materials. With much of the global sulfur supply tied to oil production in the Gulf, disruptions are now affecting phosphate producers worldwide. Consequently, fertilizer markets are shifting into a broader supply-driven imbalance, where energy and input constraints are amplifying production losses across regions.
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Sign up for a Market Intelligence trial today See our financial videos hub--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP of Fertilizer
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