By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
Fertilizer pricing is starting 2026 with renewed upside pressure even as production and exports look healthier than last year. As of January 2026, urea values in the United States have surged in a move that appears driven more by disruption risk than by confirmed supply loss. Consequently, buyers are being forced to separate what is physically available from what is being priced into the curve. These insights are drawn from a direct primary-source interview, reflecting real-time market signals rather than aggregated headlines.
Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, tracks global nitrogen, phosphate, and potash pricing through daily benchmark moves and cross-market affordability measures. His perspective is shaped by linking granular price action like New Orleans urea values to geopolitically sensitive export flows and the practical purchasing constraints facing farmers and distributors.
Urea prices are climbing in early 2026 as geopolitical disruption risk keeps markets biased toward scarcity even when supply is not yet impaired. Linville underlines the surprise move by saying "Not one that I expected to see", after New Orleans urea fell toward $350 per ton and then rebounded to $430. He points to Iran as a key uncertainty because "they're the third largest exporter in the world", meaning pricing can re-rate on disruption fears regardless of where end users source. Consequently, urea prices can stay elevated as traders and distributors pay for optionality against a headline-driven supply shock.
Global urea supply appears healthier than last year, yet price behavior is still being shaped by selective demand and the ability of sellers to maintain firmer offers. Linville notes the imbalance between typical forward coverage and current positioning, saying "These guys are not sold out two or three months in advance like they normally are". He also cites heavy Russian exports and a major swing in China’s export volumes, describing that "2025 they almost hit 5 million tons" after much lower exports in 2024. As a result, the market is sending a distorted signal where improved availability does not translate into lower prices, increasing the risk of abrupt corrections if geopolitical pressure eases or demand pauses.
Linville argues Iran still matters because it is a major exporter, and disruption risk affects global pricing even when supply is not purchased directly. In his view, the market must price the possibility that production and export flows could be harmed if instability escalates.
Linville describes a market where sellers are not fully sold out and exports look strong, yet prices are supported by just enough incremental buying and persistent uncertainty. He warns that this setup can keep prices elevated until sentiment shifts, at which point the correction risk rises.
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer, StoneX
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