By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
Fertilizer pricing is starting 2026 with renewed upside pressure even as production and exports look healthier than last year. As of January 2026, urea values in the United States have surged in a move that appears driven more by disruption risk than by confirmed supply loss. Consequently, buyers are being forced to separate what is physically available from what is being priced into the curve. These insights are drawn from a direct primary-source interview, reflecting real-time market signals rather than aggregated headlines.
Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, tracks global nitrogen, phosphate, and potash pricing through daily benchmark moves and cross-market affordability measures. His perspective is shaped by linking granular price action like New Orleans urea values to geopolitically sensitive export flows and the practical purchasing constraints facing farmers and distributors.
Urea prices are climbing in early 2026 as geopolitical disruption risk keeps markets biased toward scarcity even when supply is not yet impaired. Linville underlines the surprise move by saying "Not one that I expected to see", after New Orleans urea fell toward $350 per ton and then rebounded to $430. He points to Iran as a key uncertainty because "they're the third largest exporter in the world", meaning pricing can re-rate on disruption fears regardless of where end users source. Consequently, urea prices can stay elevated as traders and distributors pay for optionality against a headline-driven supply shock.
Global urea supply appears healthier than last year, yet price behavior is still being shaped by selective demand and the ability of sellers to maintain firmer offers. Linville notes the imbalance between typical forward coverage and current positioning, saying "These guys are not sold out two or three months in advance like they normally are". He also cites heavy Russian exports and a major swing in China’s export volumes, describing that "2025 they almost hit 5 million tons" after much lower exports in 2024. As a result, the market is sending a distorted signal where improved availability does not translate into lower prices, increasing the risk of abrupt corrections if geopolitical pressure eases or demand pauses.
Linville argues Iran still matters because it is a major exporter, and disruption risk affects global pricing even when supply is not purchased directly. In his view, the market must price the possibility that production and export flows could be harmed if instability escalates.
Linville describes a market where sellers are not fully sold out and exports look strong, yet prices are supported by just enough incremental buying and persistent uncertainty. He warns that this setup can keep prices elevated until sentiment shifts, at which point the correction risk rises.
Access live prices, supply and demand data and actionable market commentary across commodities, equities, currencies and more. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a 14-day trial.
Sign up for a Market Intelligence trial today See our financial videos hub
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer, StoneX
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
India’s next urea tender is becoming the defining event for global fertilizer markets as prices weaken and buyers regain leverage. The outcome could determine whether the recent correction deepens further or stabilises heading into the second half of 2026.
Fertilizer markets are holding together despite prolonged geopolitical disruption, but the stability is increasingly being driven by weaker farmer demand rather than healthier supply conditions. Rising input costs and financial stress are forcing growers to scale back nutrient application rates, potentially reshaping global fertilizer trade flows into 2027.
Fertilizer Swaps & Futures Daily Settlements
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
