Precious Metals StoneX 110326; Deep dive into US mid-terms; scenario analysis
Potential key changes if the Democrats take both Chambers
Rhona O'Connell
- Precious Metals
Gold Rally Risks Echo of Prior Peaks
Razan Hilal
Market Analyst
As of February 23, 2026, Gold prices are holding above the 5100 breakout level, reflecting renewed safe haven demand amid trade policy uncertainty. The move has returned Gold to clearly bullish technical territory after February volatility, reinforcing investor conviction in precious metals. Yet this strength is colliding with historically stretched momentum readings, raising questions about sustainability. The current setup presents a decisive inflection point where upside continuation and structural pullback risk coexist.
Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst, has tracked multi timeframe momentum cycles across foreign exchange and commodities through periods of elevated geopolitical and policy driven volatility. Her technical framework integrates Fibonacci extensions, structural breakout zones, and Relative Strength Index behavior, offering early visibility into when bullish momentum begins to resemble prior exhaustion phases.
Key Themes
- Gold holds above the 5100 February breakout level but faces major resistance between 5200 and 5300.
- Relative Strength Index readings on daily and four hour charts match levels seen before the January 2026 decline.
- A failure below 5100 reopens consolidation risk toward 4800 and potentially lower structural zones.
Watch the Full Video
Discover Actionable Insights with the latest Market Outlook ReportsGold Breakout Faces Momentum Exhaustion Risk
Gold is advancing above $5,100 but is now confronting technical conditions that historically preceded extended pullbacks. Hilal notes that price action is "leaning towards the bull side as it holds above a previous resistance level for the price action across the month of February, which is the $5,100 mark", confirming the structural breakout. However, she also emphasizes that the Relative Strength Index is at overbought levels "last seen in January 2026 before that extreme drop from the all-time highs", highlighting a momentum profile that mirrors prior peaks. Consequently, Gold may struggle to sustain gains unless it decisively clears resistance near $5,200 and $5,300, as stretched positioning increases vulnerability to sharp corrective moves.
Gold Support Levels Define Structural Downside Path
Gold downside risk becomes materially clearer if price closes back below the $5,100 barrier. Hilal warns that "should we close back below the $5,100 barrier, then we might be expecting consolidation risks once again within the zone extending all the way down towards the $4,800 mark", identifying the first structural cushion. A deeper break could expose Gold to further declines toward $4,600, $4,530, and $4,380, reopening zones that previously acted as demand clusters earlier in February. As a result, the Gold rally now depends not only on macro driven safe haven flows but on whether buyers can defend the breakout zone before momentum exhaustion shifts control back to sellers.
Sign up for the latest Market Outlook Reports
From detailed guides on how to trade major assets to quarterly market outlooks and special reports, we offer FREE access to the articles you need to successfully implement "global macro" style trading!
Sign Up See our financial videos hub
--- Written by Lindo Xulu, StoneX TV Journalist
--- Expert: Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst
- Precious Metals
StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs. This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity. The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice. Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced. This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity. StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate. This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Related articles for Precious Metals
What Fed Independence Means for Gold When Congress Changes Hands
A change in control of Congress reshapes the political agenda in Washington, yet Federal Reserve policy decisions stay with the central bank's own committee. That separation explains why gold takes its cues from Fed guidance more than from election results.
Rhona O'Connell
- Precious Metals
Precious Metals StoneX Bullion weekly round-up 110226; Persistently sour sentiment, but some bargain hunting
Fed is read as hiking in December; AI rout pulls gold down, and silver with it. Fresh long-term lows
Rhona O'Connell
- Precious Metals
StoneX: Your access to global markets
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.