Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 13

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 13 Mar 2026, 14:53

March 13 - Stocks are generally mixed to firmer late morning as we move through day #14 of the Iran war. The VIX is trading near 26, reflecting ongoing elevated fears on Wall Street that inflation will slow economic growth as a result of the war. The dollar index continues to trade at its highest level in more than three months, near 100.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.26%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.71%. Crude oil prices are trading near $95 at this hour. Soybean prices posted double-digit losses this morning as farmer selling picks up, including in Brazil where a record crop is being harvested. Corn prices are modestly weaker, while wheat prices continue to post modest gains on adverse weather concerns in the U.S. Plains, while also seeing inflationary money flow support on inflation concerns.

Brazil soybean basis is more than 60 cents off its January highs as it harvests a record large crop and Chicago futures rally on rumors of a possible China - U.S. trade agreement, expectations of strong biofuel guidelines from the EPA, the Iran war, and now Brazil export issues with China. Brazil's Agriculture Ministry recently adopted stricter sanitary rules for exported soybeans on the request of the Chinese government. The new guidelines created problems for some cargoes to be approved amid reports that they contained weed seeds, etc. that are not currently found in China. It's reported that Cargill halted shipments to China on Thursday due to the phytosanitary dispute. Cargill was the primary shipper of soybeans to China last year. The question being debated is, is this some strategy of China to open the way for more expensive U.S. soybeans in the weeks ahead as China prepares to host President Trump in Beijing on March 31, is this another attempt to get cheaper soybeans out of Brazil, or is this a response to a legitimate problem?

The graphic below shows estimated Chinese crush returns for Brazil soybeans versus other alternatives. Brazil soybeans are the only ones with positive crush margins - and by a wide margin. Chinese crushers are value buyers, but China has also been known over the years to take advantage of opportunities to knock prices lower. China has leverage over Brazil at this time when Brazil knows that President Trump is coming to Beijing to deal, and Brazil has a record large crop to sell. But Brazil also may have become too comfortable thinking that it had the China market locked up. In the end, things will get worked out, and China will buy Brazil soybeans - probably with less foreign material in it. China might buy 3 to 5 million metric tons more of U.S. soybeans - possibly even 8 mmt. But Brazil will still be China's long-time supplier. China's flirting with the United States is temporary in nature, to get changes out of Brazil, and to curry favors from President Trump in the near-term. But Brazil is who China wants to dance with longer term, in my opinion, as the United States is no longer the low cost producer. Yet, that may not matter much longer if the EPA favors a strong U.S. biofuel program. We should know that very soon - possibly as soon as today.

Grains & Oilseeds

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