By: Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
As of 12 March 2026, the S&P 500 is increasingly reacting to crude oil movements rather than traditional technical signals. Oil prices have rebounded toward $100 per barrel, amplifying volatility and reinforcing a fragile equity backdrop. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supply passes, are slowing tanker traffic and unsettling risk sentiment. In this environment, equity traders are watching energy headlines more closely than chart formations.
Fawad Razaqzada, StoneX UK Market Analyst, has extensive experience analyzing cross asset volatility and the interaction between energy markets and equity indices. His technical focus on trend structure combined with macro awareness of geopolitical risk provides a distinct perspective on why the S&P 500 is weakening as oil climbs.
The S&P 500 technical structure is signalling continued downside risk as crude oil prices rebound. Fawad Razaqzada notes that the index has been forming "lower highs and lower lows since stopping near the 7000 level back in January", confirming that the short-term trend remains bearish. Consequently, each rally has struggled to build momentum, reinforcing the impression of distribution rather than accumulation. This pattern leaves the S&P 500 vulnerable to renewed selling pressure if energy prices climb further.
Crude oil volatility is directly threatening key S&P 500 support levels as markets trade headline to headline. Razaqzada highlights that support lies near 6579 and potentially down toward 6506, while resistance sits around 6778 to 6790, noting that "technical levels are not the main driver" in the current regime. As a result, even well defined chart zones may fail quickly if oil resumes its advance toward $100. The interaction between energy markets and equity technicals suggests that downside risks remain elevated while geopolitical tensions persist.
Oil is near $100 and geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are raising supply concerns, which is directly influencing risk sentiment and equity pricing.
Immediate support sits around 6600 and 6579, with the November low near 6506 identified as a potential retest level if selling pressure resumes.
The formation of lower highs and lower lows since January indicates that the short term trend remains bearish.
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--- Written by Lindo Xulu, StoneX TV Journalist
--- Expert: Fawad Razaqzada, StoneX UK Market Analyst
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