Josh Linville, VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, weighs in on how escalating conflict between Iran and Israel is affecting global fertilizer markets.
“In 2024 values, Iran was the third largest exporter of urea, at about 4.5 million tons,” he states. Iran also ranked seventh in anhydrous exports, with over 800,000 tons. The potential removal of Iranian products from global markets could be as impactful as a cut from China, he notes.
While often overlooked, Israel is a significant player in potash exports. “They are the fourth largest potash exporter in the world,” Linville points out. Although the strikes have so far been targeted, the market is monitoring whether Israel’s infrastructure or export routes might be affected.
Despite the lack of direct hits on fertilizer infrastructure, Linville cautions that markets are reacting as though risks are real. “Urea markets, at least in the North American marketplace, is up about $50-$60 a tonne”. International markets have followed suit, reflecting perceived wartime premiums.
The situation remains fluid, and Linville advises vigilance. While the initial Israeli strike was “surgical” and aimed solely at Iran’s nuclear program, Iranian retaliation has been broader. Still, “they're not going after things like potash manufacture,” he clarifies. Ongoing monitoring is critical, as markets remain sensitive to any hint of escalation.
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---- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
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